The price of gold peaked in early August, when investors were willing to pay a record $ 2070 per ounce. However, it is said that the yellow metal will only say its last word, in the case when the coronary crisis is completely out of control.
“The price of gold was dragged up mainly by the fall in real yields on US government bonds. However, real yields reached their bottom in August, since then they have started to grow, and in such an environment, gold capital no longer wants it, “says Cyrrus analyst Tomáš Pfeiler.
According to him, this trend will deepen further, which could bring gold prices down. One ounce is now trading for about $ 1,893, while at the beginning of August the price of gold attacked the $ 2,100 mark, where he can head again.
“Gold has not said the last word this year. The markets may face a few more turbulences, and gold can look again over two thousand dollars an ounce, “says Colosseum analyst Petr Lajsek.
According to him, if the number of infected people increases and the countermeasures are tightened, the increase in prices to the level of $ 2,100 per ounce would not be an exception. This would mean an eleven percent increase over the current price of gold.
“It is important to grasp the development of the price of gold on a broader macroeconomic scale. Its price still reflects the presence of a pandemic, however, in recent days it has corrected mainly due to a stronger dollar, “emphasizes Saxo Bank analyst Tomáš Daňhel.
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According to him, the main promise for further development will be the American promise to pour an additional $ 2.2 trillion into the economy. “It simply came to our notice then. We expect that until the presidential election, gold will be traded between 1858 and 1944 dollars per ounce, “adds Daňhel.
Even so, the price of gold is higher than at the beginning of the year, when an ounce of gold cost around $ 1,500. Since the beginning of the year, the precious metal has brought investors about a quarter of their January bet, ie about four times the profit of the US stock index SP 500 for the same period. Nevertheless, analysts remain cautious.
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“Investing in gold cannot be seen primarily and in any case as a profit generator or a speculative instrument. The short-term view thus loses its significance, “says Lukáš Jankovský, the head of Zlaťáky. According to him, gold is primarily a store of value over time. “Short-term corrections are always desirable, as this is a sign of a well-functioning market,” adds Jankovský.
The reason for the current price drop in the precious metal may also be the sales of central banks, which have so far tended to increase their gold reserves. At the same time, central banks sold twelve tons of yellow metal during August.
“Many investors considered the price of gold to be overshot, and in the last two months they have come to a close,” adds Pfeiler.
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A milestone for gold will be the result of the US presidential election in early November. “A change of president could cause great uncertainty in the stock markets and the transfer of investors to gold,” adds Lajsek.
By the end of this year, the analyst expects a price of $ 1,800 to 2,000 an ounce. “From a historical point of view, these are still almost record values,” Lajsek recalls. For gold investors, price volatility may be primarily unfavorable news. “Gold is a very volatile asset in the short term,” emphasizes Consequ analyst Michal Stupavský.
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