Asteroid’s Lunar Collision in 2032 Could Trigger Earth Meteor Shower

A potential asteroid strike on the Moon in 2032 might unleash a dazzling, albeit hazardous, meteor shower on Earth. Scientists are currently analyzing the risks posed by debris that could be ejected from the lunar surface towards our planet.

The Impending Lunar Impact

The space rock, identified as Asteroid 2024 YR4, has a calculated 4.3% chance of striking the Moon. This is an increase from the initially estimated 3% Earth collision risk. Researchers suggest that if an impact does occur, it will be the largest in approximately 5,000 years.

A study from Canadian universities details how an impact could carve out a 1-kilometer-wide crater on the lunar surface. This could also hurl tons of debris towards Earth.

“If 2024 YR4 strikes the moon in 2032, it will (statistically speaking) be the largest impact in approximately 5,000 years,”

—Study Report

While most fragments would burn up in Earth’s atmosphere, some could enter orbit, endangering satellites and astronauts.

Potential Risks and Impacts

Dr. Paul Wiegert from the University of Western Ontario said the lunar impact’s energy would be “comparable to a large nuclear explosion.” He also noted that centimeter-sized rocks moving at high speeds are “a lot like a bullet.”

Nasa’s focus has long been on tracking asteroids threatening Earth, with the Moon being of secondary concern. In 2022, the agency successfully diverted an asteroid in a test run for planetary defense, as a proactive measure.

According to a 2023 report by the UN Office for Outer Space Affairs, there are over 30,000 pieces of space debris larger than 10 centimeters currently in orbit, presenting a significant collision risk (Source: UNOOSA).

Current Observations and Future Tracking

The asteroid is presently too distant for effective observation. It is projected to become visible again in 2028, allowing for a reassessment of its trajectory and size. Nasa has ruled out any impact that might alter the Moon’s orbit around the Earth.

The findings highlight that defense planning should extend to threats beyond our planet. The focus will remain on how to respond to potential space-related threats.