Gas supply stop from Russia would result in a massive economic downturn

What a complete stop to gas supplies from Russia would mean for the German economy is controversial. Some economists assume losses of at most 2.2 percent of gross domestic product, the joint diagnosis of the leading economic research institutes estimated the consequences for the years 2022 and 2023 together at around 6.5 percent. An investigation by Prognos on behalf of the Bavarian Business Association (vbw) paints a bleak picture. If gas suddenly stopped coming from Russia in the second half of 2022, Germany’s economy could collapse by 12.7 percent.

Germany would “slide into a deep recession” says Prognos chief economist Michael Böhmer according to Spiegel. Around 5.6 million jobs would be affected. Industry accounts for more than a third of gas consumption in Germany. Without Russian gas, half of the energy source would be missing. Gas is indispensable for the chemical, glass production and steel industries in particular. A possible production standstill would in turn have a direct impact on the automotive industry or the food industry. Even if you could buy missing products from abroad, the bottleneck in glass, chemicals and steel would ultimately affect the entire economy, according to Böhmer.

Overall, the lack of gas from Russia would result in a 50 percent drop in production for the glass industry, followed by pig iron processing (down 34 percent). The auto industry would decline by 17 percent. A quarter of the gas consumption could be replaced or saved – for example, if apartments are heated a little less, but the industry would have to reckon with a coverage gap of 50 percent from July. “In total, there is a risk of a loss of added value of 193 billion euros. Putin can turn off the gas tap at any time,” warns Bertram Brossardt, General Manager of vbw.

Ifo forecast: East German economy grows faster than the whole of Germany

The Ifo Institute assumes that the economy in eastern Germany will grow faster this year at 2.9 percent than in Germany as a whole (2.5 percent). In 2023, growth of 3.5 percent is even possible, provided there is no shortage of natural gas in winter. In the hospitality and tourism sectors, double-digit growth can be expected this year, and the labor market is also continuing to recover. However, the institute explainedthat the economic forecast before 15.06. was completed. “Downside risks” have increased since then. A possible reduction in gas supplies from Russia would not yet have quantifiable effects.

Ebay: Share offers on Snapchat

Ebay now offers the possibility of direct offers from the Ebay app into Snaps. Together with Snapchat, a template was developed with which Snapchat-compatible designs can be created at the push of a button, which are provided with offer details, an image and a clickable link that leads directly to the Ebay offer. The function can be found directly in the active offers or in every offer in the Ebay app. Customers can also use the feature to share snaps of articles. In the coming months, the functions will be expanded to other pages within the Ebay app.