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Below is the interview with Antonello Marceddu, an independent trader, to whom we asked some questions on the main stock indices, with particular attention paid to Piazza Affari.
The Ftse Mib is a breath away from the highs of July in the area of 21,100. What are the possible scenarios in the short term?
At this point and given the climb recorded in the last few sessions, I would now have a bit of caution for the Ftse Mib.
The strong extension last Monday was fueled by the news on the vaccine which fueled strong purchases especially on European stock exchanges, including Piazza Affari.
It should be noted that in the Monday session the trading volumes on our market were striking, even higher than those of June and July.
A bit of experience in volume dynamics suggests that I should be a little alert as these extraordinary volumes, although supported by a long candle, could be false signals.
Small investors are used to seeing high candles and sustained volumes, but there is a downside.
Some studies show that things may not be exactly like this and therefore in the presence of similar situations we could also have a false signal.
In any case, we await confirmation in the next sessions and also for this reason I urge caution in the short term, because in my opinion it is not so obvious that the Ftse Mib can exceed the highs of 21 July just over 21,100 points.
In the short term it could also retrace and aim for the closing of the gap last Monday close to 21,000 points.
If, on the contrary, the Ftse Mib were to cross the maximum of 21 July in the 21,100 area, it would target the closing of the gap left open between 5 and 6 March just over 21,500 points.
At least for the moment they believe that increases in the Ftse Mib are unlikely to reach the area of 22,000, although a scenario of this type cannot be excluded a priori.
The euro-dollar continues to decline after failing the 1.19 area attack in recent days. What to expect now?
The euro-dollar may still drop from current levels, as it is currently below the median of the Bollinger bands.
As a first landing I signal for the 1.1680 cross and in case of violation of this support there will be room for the downside up to 1.16 area.
In the short term, I do not expect any noteworthy recoveries for the euro-dollar which should continue to show weakness.
Broadening the observation horizon, we notice that we are experiencing a phase of congestion that has been lasting since mid-September, at least with reference to the most recent one.
The euro-dollar therefore remains in a lateral phase and will have to decide what to do, without excluding that the top was actually reached when it reached 1.20 in September.
Oil still runs non-stop. Is the current movement destined to last?
Oil today reached a resistance zone in the 42.7 / 43 dollar area from which it has been rejected for the moment.
However, it is not excluded that black gold will continue to rise towards the highs of August, although I personally doubt that we can see significant increases from the current levels.
In my opinion, the upward movement underway is a bit bogus and I don’t think it can go much further.
Speaking of levels, I point out the area of 39 dollars a barrel to check whether when this threshold is reached it will simply be a reversal and then start again or if, on the contrary, the descent will be deepened up to 37 dollars as the next step.
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