While the number of cases has continued to decline over the past few days in Quebec, the INSPQ estimates that this decrease could conceal a gradual rise in cases linked to a more transmissible variant in Quebec
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This most recent modeling takes into account the fact that the B.1.1.7 variant which emerged in the United Kingdom, and which was detected in Quebec, is 1.4 to 1.9 times more transmissible and has an effect of 1 , 1 to 1.5 times more serious (risk of hospitalization or death per case) than the initial strain. This variant could become the predominant strain in the spring, indicates the INSPQ in its most recent report.
These projections also take into account the uncertainty regarding social contacts during spring break and the return to school of young people, but do not include the relaxations announced by the government on Wednesday. Prime Minister François Legault warned that the risks of a third wave were very real
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According to the INSPQ, only strong adherence to health measures (100% reduction in visits to homes and few contacts in shops, sports and leisure) during and after the spring break would make it possible to maintain the number of cases. , hospitalizations and deaths at a stable level until the end of April.
In fact, if health measures were relaxed slightly or less respected, the number of new daily cases in Greater Montreal could easily exceed 2,000 cases per day, or even 4,000 daily cases in April and May.
Evolution of the pandemic in Greater Montreal with a more transmissible variant
Photo : INSPQ
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The other regions of Quebec could experience a slight increase in infections; the number of new cases could oscillate between 500 and 750 cases, with an average adherence to health measures.
The INSPQ considers that community transmission of variants outside of Greater Montreal is relatively low for the time being. However, these projections could change if the variant spreads outside the metropolis.
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Evolution of the pandemic outside greater Montreal with a more transmissible variant
Photo : INSPQ
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And the more contacts there are in businesses, sports and recreation, the more cases will increase exponentially, warns the INSPQ.
These INSPQ forecasts are slightly more pessimistic than those presented in mid-February, when variants were starting to be detected.
Since then, Quebec has confirmed 137 cases linked to a variant of the coronavirus. More than 1,300 cases of COVID-19 are currently under investigation and could be due to a variant.
The vaccination campaign will not be sufficient to control this new rise in the number of cases linked to a variant, also warns the INSPQ. At this time, less than 6% of the population has been vaccinated.
The INSPQ believes, however, that the increase in the number of hospitalizations and deaths could be less significant, since more and more Quebecers are vaccinated. Remember that the COVID-19 vaccine helps to alleviate the most serious symptoms of the disease.
On February 19, the Public Health Agency of Canada also warned that the multiplication of cases linked to more transmissible variants risked causing a third wave. The number of new cases in Canada could easily exceed 10,000 per day by the end of March, even with the public health measures currently in place.
Models presented in Ontario show that this province could register 5,000 to 6,000 new cases per day by the end of March, because of the British variant.
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