The Russians are unlikely to break off relations, because there is no way for them to influence the situation in our country
How far the freeze between Bulgaria and Russia will go after the closing of the embassies and possible severance of diplomatic ties was one of the topics that on Friday deputies discussed informally among themselves on the sidelines.
What would be the most vulnerable points in our country from the Russian ambassador Eleonora Mitrofanova’s ultimatum to withdraw the Bulgarian decision to expel the 70 Russian diplomats?
Of course, the most important thing is what and how serious Moscow’s response will be, about which the ambassador writes.
In diplomatic terms, it can vary from its withdrawal, through closing the embassy in our country, to the termination of diplomatic relations with Bulgaria.
However, is it possible to end diplomatic relations in 2022?
Russia would hardly take such a desperate last step,
because she herself would in a definite way deprive herself of all opportunities to monitor and influence the situation in Bulgaria and the region, as she does through her diplomatic representation. No matter what level it is.
In political terms, this would rather be positive for Bulgaria and counter-indicative for Russia. In the economic aspect, however, the perspective is reversed – Bulgaria would experience difficulties due to the severance of diplomatic relations.
Russia is one of Bulgaria’s main foreign economic partners. In 2020, 4% of Bulgaria’s foreign trade was with it. For the nine months of last year, imports from Russia amounted to nearly BGN 3 billion, and exports to BGN 466 million.
According to data from the Ministry of Economy, we mainly import energy raw materials, which have a share of 67.2%, as well as aluminum, copper and copper alloys, coal and briquettes.
The largest share in our exports to Russia are medicines – 26.5%. According to BNB data, as of December 2020, the volume of investments in Bulgaria from Russia was EUR 2.383 billion, which represents about 5% of all. Russia ranks 9th among foreign investors in our country.
Russian tourists in our country before the sanctions because of the war in Ukraine were around 500,000 per year.
Last year, the trade representative of Russia in Bulgaria, Konstantin Artyushin, said that about 5 billion dollars were invested by Russians in 74 thousand properties in our country.
However, which are the sites in Bulgaria that would be the first to feel the freezing according to the forecasts of deputies?
And the possibility that Bulgarians will not get visas for Russia may turn out to be the least of the problems.
If relations with Russia freeze, serious problems may arise in the Kozloduy NPP, the oil refinery in Burgas and the Sofia metro, MPs from BSP, GERB, “Ima talikny narod” are convinced.
The reason – the spare parts for the nuclear power plant come from Russia, the same applies to the subway, a
the risk at “Lukoil Neftohim” is from stopping the supply of fuel
“24 Chasa” asked for reactions on the subject.
The refinery in Burgas refused to comment on whether the possible severance of diplomatic relations would affect the supply of Russian oil. According to Lukoil Neftohim sources, imports should not stop, as there is no direct connection. “Lukoil Neftohim” mainly operates Russian oil grade “Urals”. For the first quarter of 2022, it was 63% of total refinery processing, but now it is 100%.
I cannot predict how it will be in the future, but at the moment there is no problem with the supply of spare parts for the trains of the Sofia Metro. The last delivery was from January and for now we have no need for another one, explained the head of “Metropolitan” EAD Prof. Stoyan Bratoev.
The oldest subway trains are Russian,
trains manufactured by “Siemens” run on the new lines.
So far, there is no delay in the execution of the contract for the overhaul of the oldest trains in a Russian factory. Last year, three trains were repaired, at the beginning of this year, three more returned to Sofia after major repairs. For 2023, the repair of 4 more trains is planned.
Problems with the supply of spare parts are expected from Kozloduy NPP
and not even so much with them as with the presence of Russian specialists at the site of the headquarters, after consular services will be closed. If nothing else, it would at least make their arrival more difficult.
The nuclear power plant has contracts for the supply of spare parts, but since it carefully monitors the situation, it has been following the path of alternative orders for a long time – to the Czech “Skoda”, to the French “Framatom”, to other European companies.
There is no problem with nuclear fuel for now, experts say. Another delivery was made in May, a new one is expected in October. The transport of spent nuclear fuel will probably take place, pending the approval of the European Agency.
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