France Faces Export Challenge with Projected 8 Million Tonne Wheat Surplus
PARIS – France is bracing for a challenging wheat export landscape,anticipating a need to offload at least eight million tonnes outside the European Union in 2025,according to details from Argus Media. This comes despite a relatively small 30,000-tonne purchase earlier, which was considered “almost nothing” in comparison to current projections.
The situation is complicated by strained diplomatic relations with Algeria, a former key trading partner, effectively halting wheat trade between Algiers and Paris. Together,demand from China,which purchased 2.4 million tonnes of French wheat in 2023, has “become very small, even reduced to zero,” reports Argus Media market analyst Maxence Devillers.The agency forecasts only 500,000 tonnes of French wheat exports to China for the 2025-2026 campaign.
While Morocco has emerged as France’s leading wheat buyer, expected to import 2.5 million tonnes this year, additional demand is anticipated from sub-Saharan Africa (2.4 million tonnes) and Egypt (900,000 tonnes). However,unsold wheat is projected to lead to record storage levels in France,possibly reaching four million tonnes – a level not seen since the 2004-2005 campaign.Increased production in other European nations, notably Romania (12.2 million tonnes) and Bulgaria (7.7 million tonnes), further intensifies the competition and contributes to low prices. Wheat on the euronext exchange is currently trading around 190 euros per tonne for december delivery, a price insufficient to cover the average French production cost of 200 euros per tonne, according to Argus Media’s Alexandre Willekens. A climate or geopolitical event would be needed to drive prices upward.
