Not everyone is equally optimistic on behalf of the Ukrainian military.
Jacob Skaarenborg is a historian, and according to Danish Dagbladet Information has been employed in the Danish military intelligence service for 26 years.
Confirmation trap
In an article in the Danish newspaper, Skaarenborg writes that the experts who have appeared in the media and predicted Ukraine’s victory have fallen into a confirmation trap.
New military grip
Skaarenborg claims that they have already chosen a conclusion, and then cherry-pick arguments that confirm it. He believes the narrative of a Ukrainian victory is based on feelings and sympathies.
– The Russians have never been good in the initial phases of wars, he writes, referring to the first war in Chechnya where the Russians had to withdraw in 1996.
Wear out
He also accuses the experts of only relying on information from official Ukrainian officials.
He claims that Russia’s tactics in war tend to wear out the opponent, and that they do the same in Ukraine.
– When the Ukrainians are tender, Russian tanks advance. Then there is only one way, and that is not the way the experts present with hope in their voices – the Ukrainian victory, he writes.
Disagree
NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg, for his part, has stated that Ukraine has a real chance of winning.
He said this during a press conference after the NATO meeting on 15 May.
Norwegian experts have also pointed out that a Russian victory is not the only possible outcome of the war.
Lieutenant General Arne Bård Dalhaug has previously stated to Dagbladet that he thought a Ukrainian victory was possible, and pointed out, among other things, progress in Kharkiv.
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