A week before the US midterm elections, the Republican Party holds the lead over Democrats in nationwide polls. However, if in the case of the House of Representatives few doubt the victory of the Republicans, then the future of the Senate remains the main intrigue of the November 8 vote. All eyes in the senator race are on the five oscillating states. The Democratic Party’s prospects in these campaigns are negatively impacted by President Joe Biden’s ratings and Republican voters are repelled by the stigma of candidates who made it to the final round. The further fate of the head of the White House largely depends on the results of the vote: among the Democrats, confidence is growing that the party needs a new leader to lead it to the presidential elections of 2024.
Republicans continue to lead the nation surveys a week before the midterm elections in the United States. According to CBS News, they have a 2% advantage over the Democrats (47% versus 45%). Rasmussen’s polls show that the Republican Party is ahead of rivals in voter preferences by 7% (49% versus 42%). One way or another, now all forecasts indicate that the Democrats have failed to create a miracle and turn the tide of the House of Representatives election campaign. This means that there is almost no doubt that this part of Congress, where the fight is for all 435 seats, will come under the control of the Republicans after November 8.
But with the Senate, which is renewed every two years by a third (for a total of 100 legislations), there is no clarity. As noted American mediaIn most contests, everything is generally clear, but the fate of the Senate must be decided in elections in five states: Nevada, Georgia, Pennsylvania, Arizona and Wisconsin. Some like it CNNreduce the list to four, eliminating from this list Wisconsin, where the Democratic candidate, Lieutenant Governor Mandela Barnes, despite all the efforts of the party that also sent former President Barack Obama to help his campaign, seems to be in no position. able to push the current holder, Republican Ron Johnson, out of the senatorial chair.
In the remaining four races there was a paradoxical situation. On the one hand, the prospects of Democratic candidates are negatively affected by President Joe Biden’s rating: in these states his activities are not approved by the majority of voters. On the other hand, about the same number of voters are not thrilled with the Republican Party candidates: overly controversial characters, some with very radical views, have been selected for this year’s elections.
Opinion polls show that Mr. Biden’s approval ratings in Nevada, Georgia, Pennsylvania and Arizona are often even lower than national ones, where he has long been entrenched at below 50 percent. According to the latest data, the activities of the President of the United States are supported by 39% (Reuters) to 45% (Rasmussen) of Americans. And, as CNN notes, over the past three decades, Senate candidates, regardless of their party affiliation, have been less likely to win in those states where voters view the incumbent owner of the Oval Office so negatively.
The Democrats’ only hope now is that a significant number of residents in these four states will see Republican candidates as incompetent and too radical.
For the undecided voters, who usually determine the outcome of the race in swinging states, this could be a reason to support a moderate Democratic candidate, turning a blind eye to the activities of “number one Democrat” Joe Biden. The Republicans, however, take this moment into account and in the last few meters they are increasingly deploying their campaigns around the negative image of the head of the White House. He has had some success in reducing trust in Democratic rivals, CNN admits. Most Americans are frustrated with Biden’s handling of the challenges: crime, the crisis on the southern edge of the United States, the economy and inflation. Therefore, the task of convincing them that a Democratic senator will solve these problems better than a Democratic president is obviously not easy.
“The main question remains the decision of a group of independent voters whose opinions are somewhere in between. In the end they vote. People say, “I hate inflation, crime is destroying this big city I live in.” Or people say, “Sorry, but Herschel Walker is a clown, Mehmet Oz is a clown, Blake Masters is a comedy (speaking of Republican candidates .—” “ehm”) “Will they vote for the Democrats? I don’t know. I honestly don’t know,” noted Democratic sociologist Paul Maslin described the unpredictability of the situation in a CNN comment.
In any case, if there are no surprises in other contests, Republicans will only have to win one in four swing states to take control of the Senate, or two in five if Wisconsin intrigues aren’t discounted.
Not pro-Democrats is the speech that Joe Biden needs to decide as soon as possible on plans for the 2024 elections, which have long since gone beyond the boundaries of intra-party discussions. Some Democrats openly question the appropriateness of the current head of the White House participation in the next presidential campaign due to his age (Mr. Biden will turn 80 on November 20) and low grades, caused, among other things, by the lack of an image of a strong and decisive leader, as well as ridiculous situations in which he falls. According to The Hill, after November 8, Joe Biden will face even more pressure on his electoral intentions than he does. And if the Democrats still lose both Houses of Congress, then the demand for a new party leader, who will lead him to the battle for the White House in two years, will only intensify.
According to the information The hill, the Democrats’ main claim to Joe Biden, which they express privately, is that he could not properly grasp the agenda that worries voters and convince Americans that he and his party are capable of coping with the major misfortune to the voters. United States of the present time – inflation. Therefore, Biden’s prospects will also depend on the November 8 election results, that is, whether the Democratic Party will be able to get out of the situation with minimal losses. The complete transition of Congress under Republican control will inevitably blame Joe Biden. However, if even in the event of bankruptcy in November 2022, the incumbent president still decides to run for a second term, there are hardly any daredevils among his party members ready to challenge him. Rallying around a leader who is losing his grip is not the best strategy, but dividing the group and carrying the dirty laundry out of the hut is even worse.
