Despite the energy crisis and falling foreign banks, our financial system is in good shape, according to the Central Planning Bureau (CPB). The consequences of falling house prices are also likely to remain limited. However, young homeowners are vulnerable and there is a real chance of a recession.
After the misery of the corona crisis, companies and households had to deal with expensive energy and other rising prices last year. Furthermore, several banks failed in the United States and Switzerland this year and house prices have been falling since the summer of 2022.
But the Dutch economy can absorb those blows. This is because financial institutions, such as banks, insurers and pension funds, have sufficient reserves and because the position of many homeowners has improved recently. As a result, they can probably absorb the falling prices. The CPB is also not afraid that the banking unrest, especially in the US, will spread to the Netherlands.
The exceptions are young people, low net worth homeowners and those who have recently purchased a home. Their position has improved less than that of many others in recent years. As a result, they can get into trouble faster.
There is a real chance of a small recession
The Netherlands is at risk of falling into a minor recession. This is partly due to the high inflation. Because of the higher prices we spend less. And to combat inflation, the European Central Bank (ECB) is taking measures that slow down the economy, such as raising interest rates.
We speak of a recession when the economy shrinks for two quarters in a row. In the first quarter of this year, the economy contracted by 0.7 percent.
There is also a chance of a new euro crisis. The CPB takes this into account because of the high government debts and sharply rising interest rates, particularly in Southern Europe.
2023-05-31 07:02:50
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