To person
Oliver Keppler is a board member of the Max von Pettenkofer Institute at the Ludwig Maximilians University in Munich. At the same time, he holds the chair for virology.
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“Even influenza vaccination is only moderately effective”
tagesschau.de: Why are you so much more pessimistic than other virologists?
Keppler: We have to be measured by the successes, but also the failures, of the past 30 years. If we look back at vaccine development against other pandemic infectious diseases caused by viruses, bacteria or parasites – such as HIV / AIDS, dengue fever, tuberculosis or malaria – these are the scourges of humanity that have been causing suffering and death for decades. And we have not yet managed to develop an effective vaccine against any of these four.
In respiratory infections, which include the coronavirus, we have one-eyed person among the blind – this is the influenza vaccination. This vaccination is the best we have. Unfortunately, it is also not highly effective. The effectiveness fluctuates between 30 and 70 percent from year to year. It has to be vaccinated every year because the virus changes significantly and the immunity from vaccination or a previous infection that you had the year before only partially or not at all helps.
Nevertheless, I have to emphasize that, especially in the coming winter season, influenza vaccination will be extremely important in order to reduce the number of at least these respiratory diseases.
The other day I read a headline from the United States: “Success in vaccine development”, as has been the case lately. The report then said that eight out of 34 vaccinated subjects showed an immune response. That would be the moment when research on this vaccine would have to be stopped or completely ‘started again’ because the result is actually a disaster. There is currently – of course also from economic interests – a hype that has little to do with reality.
“Hope for ‘Super Vaccine’ Completely Exaggerated”
tagesschau.de: What does your forecast look like?
Keppler: We have to differentiate exactly what we are talking about. We want a highly effective vaccine. So one who really protects all vaccinated against infection with the new coronavirus or even the outbreak of Covid 19 disease.
Secondly, it should be safe, which means that it should not have any serious side effects – for all population groups, including small children and the elderly. Third, it must be scalable. That means you have to be able to produce hundreds of millions or even billions of vaccine doses relatively quickly – within months.
In my opinion, the hope of such a “super vaccine” is completely exaggerated. It could also be that we will never have it. Instead, we would have to talk about whether we could achieve partial success.
“Medicines as a second important weapon”
tagesschau.de: What does that mean?
Keppler: I am relatively confident, partly because of the great effort that is currently being put into development, that we will receive vaccines that will at least give partial immunity to certain groups of people. So that maybe the very serious infections will disappear or that some people may be completely protected, others not.
We see this also with other vaccines, that depending on the human immune status, some vaccine strategies work better and others worse. And we’ll probably see something like that with the current virus.
However, we should not put all our hope and energy on vaccine development, but also take effective antiviral medicines forward. Because of course they can also weaken serious illnesses and help prevent consequential damage or at least reduce their numbers. It will surely be the second most important weapon in the coming years.
“The virus is changing genetically”
tagesschau.de: Could it be like the flu that the vaccine has to be adjusted and re-vaccinated every year?
Keppler: It’s hard to predict, but I think it’s possible. The respiratory RNA viruses can change significantly genetically; With Sars-CoV-2 you can already often see differences in viruses even in local spread and even more in different regions of the world.
We do not yet know whether these genetic changes are relevant to immunity. We don’t even know if someone who has had an infection can reinfect themselves next week, next month, or maybe only next year with the viruses that then circulate. These are all questions of current research projects.
“Current debate completely misguided”
tagesschau.de: If there is neither an effective drug nor a vaccine in the long run, what is the alternative?
Keppler: I think that for the foreseeable future it will be part of our everyday life to keep our distance, wear mouth-and-nose coverings and comply with hygiene measures – depending on the seasonality and the pandemic situation of the virus in the respective regions. Until there are effective treatments or vaccines.
However, I am confident that we will find medical devices that will help, although it is not clear when. I just find the current debate misguided: there is discussion about how to distribute a vaccine that is not even on the horizon. I can only shake my head.
It is sometimes suggested that it is only a question of who gets this vaccine and when – a debate about envy and distribution that only causes unrest. But more than ever, we need cooperation in science and politics for the common goal of getting the pandemic under control.
The interview was conducted by Sandra Stalinski, tagesschau.de.
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