10.8.2020 13:27, BAACEZ
EZ will announce the financial results for 2Q 2020, resp. 1H 2020. From 4 pm there will be a conference call with the company’s management.
| Estimates of management for 2Q 2020 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| billion K | 2Q 2020 | Market consensus * | 2Q 2019 |
and / and |
| Revenues | 50,4 | 49,1 | 48,2 | 4,6 % |
| EBITDA | 12,2 | 12,4 | 13,6 | -10,3 % |
| EBIT | 4,8 | 5,0 | 5,3 | -9,4 % |
| is zisk |
2,1 | 2,7 | 3,8 | -44,7 % |
| Earnings per share (K) |
4,0 | – | 7,2 | -44,4 % |
* medin according to a survey by EZ
Note: net profit and earnings per share are also due to extraordinary non-cash effects.
Should the energy sector, as a system of basic infrastructure, be affected by the coronavirus pandemic sector, and thus EZ should not be significantly affected by its own restrictive measures, so only in the second quarter of the quarter will there be a decline in profitability. Specifically, EBITDA profit is expected to be 10.3% y / y lower at the level of 12.2 billion K, and at the level of the same net profit we will expect a decrease in the amount of 3.8 billion K to 2.1 billion K.
The spring sharp slowdown in economic activity, when a number of large industrial enterprises stopped production during the emergency measures, was reflected in a sharp decline in domestic electricity consumption, reaching only around 15% in April. This then negatively affects both the distribution and sales segment, as well as the segment in which, due to declining electricity production, coal (not only wholesale EZu) reduced coal sales. According to our opinion, the year-on-year declines in operating profitability in distribution and sales are reflected, for example, in individual countries where EZ operates. The largest absolute impact on the overall economy of EZ should come from domestic distribution and sales with a negative impact on EBITDA of around 0.7 billion K. According to our estimates, the coal mining segment may show an adverse inter-annual impact on total operating profitability of around CZK 0.8 billion. .
The expected decrease in electricity production is expected (-6.6% y / y; the manifestation is different from the time schedule of the shutdown at Temelno and from the unfulfilled protaen shutdown at the Dukovan block), resp. domestic coal (-5% y / y) should not have such a significant impact on profitability, when on the one hand the favorable development of electricity forces on energy exchanges could in the good results of trading commodities and on the other hand EZ turned off the production of mainly old electricity due to spring demand. , in some coal blocks, which then dampens the adverse effects on the overall management. According to our estimates, the decline in production could reduce EBITDA by only about 0.4 0.5 billion K.
As we indicated this year in common, ie at the onset of the coronavirus crisis, exactly the same anchor for this year’s economic result is the favorable hedging of electricity forces, when EZ accounts for 18% of the international sales price of electricity from its production sources. This will be reflected in the dampening of all the changes in the negative effects of the near crisis, not only in the second quarter of this year (in which we will see a positive impact from rising electricity prices of around 1.5 billion CZK after the cost of emission allowances), but also throughout 2020. Thanks to interesting electricity prices, EZ, despite the severe effects of the coronavirus pandemic on the Czech economy, should, according to our opinion, show a number of profitability for the whole of this year. On the part of the company’s management, we will confirm the May view of EBITDA, resp. net profit in the range of 61 64 billion CZK, resp. 19 K 22 22 billion (in 2019 EZ achieved EBITDA, or profitability in the amount of K 60.2 billion, or K 18.9 billion). We have no reason to change the outlook for the financial year of EZu SEBITDA in the amount of CZK 63.5 billion and with the net profit in the vicinity of CZK 21 billion.
Jan Raka, analyst, Fio banka, as
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