For some days we have also been talking to you about what could happen next winter, where a series of opposite climatic indices will go to strongly influence the season. What could arise from this rather anomalous series of conditions, it is a winter characterized by more extreme weather than usual. Stormy.
Claim it will be a winter colder or warmer than average for one single geographical area, it is currently almost impossible. The climatic trend lines see a warming of our hemisphere greater than the southern one, and this also happens during the winter season, and we consider it as a sort of currently unsolvable climatic baggage, a sort of starting point.
Yet, that almost 1 ° C higher than the average does not cancel out the winter, which will come like every year.
We have seen that despite climate changes, in some geographical areas they have occurred very harsh winters, on the contrary, Europe does nothing but follow one another series of winter seasons myths. But this time there is a novelty that the other years had not manifested itself: in the Atlantic Ocean there are the Blob which had been talked about so much that it reached the north-western European coasts, but then there is a significant warming of what is there Gulf Stream. This currently also marks peaks over 3 ° C beyond the norm in its surface temperatures. Attention, the overall anomaly of the whole mass of water is about 1 ° C.
With these premises we could hypothesize a milder than average winter. But we have already seen in the past that this current, when it was colder than normal, did not bring cold winters to our continent.
Ma, this heating already quite intrigued.
Much of the waters of our hemisphere are warmer than average, due to the very hot summer season that we spent. And to say it is not us, but the major global climate institutions. This shows that the climate is affected by fluctuations towards the heat. At the same time, however, we observe that the southern hemisphere has temperatures that are similar to the reference average.
And yet, what an extreme season is just ending with them: winter. A season that in our hemisphere has often been warmer than the average in recent years. There is a considerable thermal discrepancy between the two hemispheres, the causes of which are not being studied. There are conjectures, hypotheses, but no certainties about the causes.
Observing the anomalies of the emerged lands of our hemisphere comes the anguish: currently the temperature is 1.2 ° C above average, and 3.8 ° C in the Arctic region. A real disaster.
Ma, the South Pole region measures an average temperature of -1.8 ° C compared to the norm. To better understand, a very large and colder than average area in those parts, where frost is already at home.
But let’s go back to the origin of our study: the Gulf Stream. The speed with which it transits north-east from the Gulf of Mexico has not changed, the fresh waters coming from the Greenland thaw slow down the process that generates the warming of surface waters. In short, it is dying, nothing has changed, and forecasts see its end by the end of the century, if not much earlier.
The Gulf Stream has only temporarily warmed due to very high temperatures which have occurred in North America, and which have influenced the surrounding seas.
The same thing happened in our Mediterranean Sea, which currently, especially in the central-eastern part, is very hot compared to the norm.
In short, the Gulf Stream is not good health, even if surface waters currently measure temperatures above average. Therefore nothing has changed, it is i climate behavior indices are favorable to winter weather, and therefore also to possible irritation of cold air more accentuated than in other years of our hemisphere.
For now we have the legacy of the very hot summer 2020, with very large areas of land that have above average temperatures. But there are vast regions that already measure sub-normal temperatures.
We remind you that weather forecasts with a validity of up to 5 days have greater reliability, while this decreases as we move away over time.
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