Analysts consulted by the Central Bank expect a relevant rise in the cost of living also in 2022. They also foresee that next year GDP will grow again.
–
The November edition of the Market Expectations Survey (REM), which is the monthly survey carried out by the Central Bank of Argentina to know the forecasts that some of the most important market players have, shows this Saturday that Analysts forecast 50% inflation for the trans-Andean country for 2021, higher than that which will surely be registered in 2020.
This new projection is 1.1 percentage points higher than the one presented the previous month. Likewise, the 42 specialists consulted estimate that in the short term consumer prices will also show an upward trend, and expect inflation to end this year with an increase of 36.7%. The first ten months of the year, the consumer price index has registered an increase of 26.9%, according to official figures.
Likewise, experts estimate that in the next semester inflation will move in the range of 3.3 to 4.1% per month, regardless of the behavior of the dollar in the market. The Central Bank recalled that, if these expectations are met, inflation in 2020 will be about 17 points below that registered in 2019, when it reached 53.8%.
Positive GDP in 2021
The survey also revised up its inflation forecast for 2022, which now stands at 36.4%, which implies an increase of 0.5 percentage points compared to the survey of the previous month. According to the consultation carried out by the Central Bank, experts project that in November the consumer price index will be 3.6% (the official data will be published on December 15), 0.1 percentage points above the previous measurement.
Regarding the evolution of economic activity, analysts improved their expectations by 0.7 percentage points, predicting that this year Argentina’s gross domestic product (GDP) will contract 10.9%, after falling 2.1% in 2019. In 2021, experts project that GDP will recover by 4.8%.
On the other hand, for this month, experts project a nominal exchange rate of 83 pesos per US dollar, compared to a value of 81.65 pesos per dollar at the close of this Friday in the official wholesale market. By the end of 2021, experts project that the exchange rate will stand at 126.5 pesos per dollar.
– .
