Home » World » Expert: It is completely possible for Ukraine to reach Crimea or recapture a greater part of Donbass

Expert: It is completely possible for Ukraine to reach Crimea or recapture a greater part of Donbass

It is consistent with previous reports that the Russians are preparing to defend positions before winter. Lieutenant Colonel Palle Ydstebø, who heads the land forces section at the Staff School, believes, however, that Ukraine may succeed in reaching Crimea or retaking large swathes of Donbas this winter.

Lieutenant Colonel Palle Ydstebø photographed at Akershus Fortress. Photo: Terje Pedersen / NTB

– It is entirely possible if the conditions are favorable. Initially it will depend on the strength conditions. Ukraine must have a combination of local superiority in both quality and quantity both to be able to break through to the Russian front and to penetrate Russian supply lines, especially railways, Ydstebø told NTB.

– They must also be strong enough to counter any Russian counterattacks and counterattacks. Such offensives require large amounts of artillery, which needs a lot of ammunition, he says.

Winter War

Another factor is weather and driving. Winter is approaching in Ukraine.

– A cold winter with good weather on the field will favor Ukrainian offensives, also because they look better dressed and shod for winter, and because they are better at maintaining and taking care of their equipment, says Ydstebø.

– Ukraine now has the strategic initiative and will use it for what it’s worth. The Russians seem to want to establish a winter defensive position to build up strength for possible new offensives in the spring. Either way, they need to equip and train bigger departments to be able to challenge the Ukrainian initiative, he says.

In the newspaper The report on Ukraine to the British Ministry of Defense, informs that trenches are being created near the border with Crimea and near the river that separates the two counties in the Donbass region.

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A photo showing a Russian tank and destroyed buildings in a village near the recently liberated city of Kherson.  Photo: Bernat Armangue / AP / NTB

A photo showing a Russian tank and destroyed buildings in a village near the recently liberated city of Kherson. Photo: Bernat Armangue / AP / NTB

– Some of these are up to 60 kilometers behind the current front line, suggesting that Russia is preparing for further major Ukrainian breakthroughs. It is likely that Russia will try to move some of the forces withdrawn from Kherson to strengthen their offensive operations near Bakhmut in Donetsk, the British write.

Dig defensive lines deep

Ydstebø says that Russia also probably needs to have forces ahead to have control over the Ukrainian advance.

– They are probably building defense lines in depth to protect the coastal road from Mariupol, which together with a reduced capacity on the Kerch bridge are the most important supply lines for the forces in the south, Ydstebø tells NTB.

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People gather in central Kherson in a square where there is internet access after the liberation of the city.  Photo: Bernat Armangue / AP / NTB

People gather in central Kherson in a square where there is internet access after the liberation of the city. Photo: Bernat Armangue / AP / NTB

– The Ukrainian offensives have gone against exposed Russian supply lines, and with the long and exposed lines they have to the south, the Russians must deploy forces to protect them. Also, both Ukrainian special forces and partisans operate in these areas, so the Russians need relatively large forces to have some degree of control. They can come at the expense of frontline forces and reserves to deal with Ukrainian offensives and breakthroughs, says Ydstebø.

Bottleneck alerts

At the same time, writes the American think tank Institute for the Study of War that Russian defensive positions in Kherson are vulnerable. According to the think tank, there have been reports that Ukraine has already started targeting these locations.

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A Ukrainian soldier in Kherson on Wednesday.  Photo: Bernat Armangue / AP / NTB

A Ukrainian soldier in Kherson on Wednesday. Photo: Bernat Armangue / AP / NTB

ISW warns the Russians may be stuck in a bottleneck leaving the forces vulnerable to Ukrainian attacks.

– A limited number of high-quality roads and rail lines in areas, especially connecting Crimea to the mainland, creates potential bottlenecks that could be vulnerable to Ukrainian counterattacks that could gradually undermine Russia’s ability to continue supplying its forces in eastern Kherson and other areas in southern Ukraine, writes ISW.

Tankesmia likens it to the gradual dismantling of Russian defensive positions west and north of Kherson earlier this year. Eventually it led to major Ukrainian breakthroughs.

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A photo of Russian President Vladimir Putin on the ground near a prison in the liberated city of Kherson.  Photo: Efrem Lukatsky / AP / NTB

A photo of Russian President Vladimir Putin on the ground near a prison in the liberated city of Kherson. Photo: Efrem Lukatsky / AP / NTB

– Ukrainian forces are likely to face greater problems in trying to achieve such dramatic results in eastern Kherson, but they may be able to influence Russia’s attempts to establish and maintain the new defense lines, writes ISW.

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