According to Samsung Futures, the volatility of the financial market from interest rates will expand, and the dollar/won exchange rate is likely to intensify upward pressure. While the support power of Lee Pyeong-seon (1,121.20 won) on the 120th is expected, the 200-week Lee Pyeong-seon of 1,142.20 won and the 200-day Lee Pyeong-seon of 1,153.70 won are the resistance lines. It is likely to determine the extent of the increase according to the trend of foreigners in the stock market due to increased volatility in the financial market and the strength of the negotiations at the top. Paying attention to today’s stock market trend, an attempt to settle in the 1,130 won range is expected.
■ Government-led economic stimulus, the Fed standing behind
The market is again paying attention to the Fed to expand financial market volatility, such as government bond interest rates. In particular, contrary to the opinion of most Fed officials that the recent rise in interest rates reflects growth, the recent Fed director Brainerd mentioned that he was watching the bond market, raising market expectations. At the Wall Street Journal (WSJ) Job Summit on the previous day, Chairman Powell affirmed his moderate monetary policy commitment that the economy is still far from the Fed’s goals, that achieving full employment takes time and is unlikely this year, and the 4% unemployment rate itself is not full employment. . He noted that the recent surge in Treasury yields was remarkable, but the Fed’s willingness to respond to the surge in interest rates expected by the market could not be found.
The market is expecting a response to the surge in long-term interest rates, such as controlling the yield curve (YCC), twisting operations, and expanding temporary purchases of long-term government bonds. However, the recent surge in interest rates reflects concerns about’overheating’ amid strengthened fiscal policy, and the Fed’s more mitigating response is likely to intensify concerns about’overheating’ and ultimately act as an additional upward pressure on long-term interest rates. There is a possibility of the Fed temporarily responding to the frictional surge in interest rates and excessive volatility in the financial market, but the Fed is expected to stand behind amid strong government-led economic stimulus. This is due to the environmental impact that provides support for the dollar.
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