How is the coronavirus epidemic evolving in France?
The coronavirus is still circulating in France and epidemiological surveillance has increased since the start of deconfinement, on May 11, which then accelerated on June 2 and 22. As every week, Public Health France published an epidemiological point at the end of the week to find out the evolution of the situation of Covid-19 (figures as of June 23). If overall the indicators are still positive in mainland France, the situation in Overseas is still worrying. Here’s what to remember:
The weekly number of deaths in France decreased in week 25 compared to week 24 with 242 deaths against 298. The highest rates of death of COVID-19 patients reported to the population (per 100,000 inhabitants) were observed in the Grand-Est (1.4 / 100,000 h), French Guiana (1.1 / 100,000 h) and Mayotte (1.0 / 100,000 h) regions. For all other regions, this rate was less than 1 per 100,000 population.
The positivity rate of the weekly national tests increased between week 24 and 25, going from 1.3% to 1.5% according to data from Public Health France. This is explained by the high positivity rates on the side of Mayotte (15.5%) and Guyana (27% against 22 the previous week) while the average in mainland France is 1.1%.
The incidence rate (number of new cases per 100,000 inhabitants) is 4.9 / 100,000 inhabitants at the national level (4.3 / 100,000 h in week 24) and 3.5 / 100,000 h in metropolitan France (3.8 / 100,000 h in week 24). In mainland France, the highest incidence rates were observed in the departments of Meurthe-et-Moselle (28/100 000 h) and Val-d’Oise (10/100 000 h). In Mayotte, the incidence rate of 40/100 000 inhabitants while in Guyana this rate explodes being 88/100 000 h.
The balance sheet of the clusters (except Ehpad and restricted family environment) has been stable for 3 weeks according to the data as of June 24. 252 clusters in mainland France and 20 in the overseas departments and regions have been discovered since the start of deconfinement. 82 clusters are still under investigation. These homes mostly concern health establishments (26%), businesses (16% in private and public companies, excluding health) and people in precarious and vulnerable situations (13% in social and integration and 6% in vulnerable communities).
The R or national effective reproduction number is 0.92 in week 25 and “shows no change since the previous week” according to Public Health France. As a reminder, this means that an infected person infects less than another. However, several regions are above 1 and require increased monitoring. The number of reproduction estimated in Guyana is always high with R = 2.50. Normandy is the only metropolitan region with an R significantly greater than 1 (1.72), while the Center Val de Loire, Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes and Grand-Est regions have estimates slightly greater than 1 (1.06; 1.08; 1.01).
Fear of a renewed epidemic
Caution is required as seven clusters have been identified in recent days in Normandy, raising fears of a rebound in the epidemic in France. Other cases have been identified, notably in Haute-Garonne, in Gard, in Bouches-du-Rhône and in Hérault. Saturday, June 27, the authorities reported a confirmed case of coronavirus at the Germaine Richier school in Montpellier in a CP class. Students will not have lessons Monday, June 29: children and teachers are placed in the fortnight pending the result of their test.
In addition, two schoolchildren tested positive for Covid-19 in the Pablo-Picasso school in Petit-Quevilly, located near Rouen, Friday June 26. The establishment closed its doors as a precaution, “with regard to the current clusters”. Similarly, in Toulouse after the discovery of several cases in schools. A child from the Patte d’Oie school was diagnosed positive. The town hall, the rectorate and the CLAE manager immediately applied the recommended health procedures. All the children in this class, their teacher and the CLAE leader were quarantined, the time to be tested themselves.
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