The zloty has been depreciating in recent days. On Thursday afternoon, the euro was over PLN 0.04 more expensive than on Wednesday. These are the weakest ratings since mid-May. According to the chief economist of DM TMS Brokers, Konrad Białas, the prospects for the next few days are also not the best.
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On Tuesday it was exceeded psychological limit of PLN 4.50 per euro. On Thursday around 4.30 pm you had to pay 5-6 cents more for one euro.
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On Thursday, as in recent days, the zloty also depreciates against the dollar, Swiss franc and pound.
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“The strengthening of the dollar is not favorable”
– The coming days will probably not be too happy for the zloty. However, this forecast is not supported by fundamental issues related to the domestic currency, or by political issues and possible reshuffles in the government. The zloty is not favored by the strengthening of the dollar and the general tendency to reduce the risk on the currency market – said Konrad Białas from TMS Brokers.
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He added that “the retreat from risk applies not only to the zloty or the CEE region, but it is a global trend”.
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– It is related to the current fiscal situation in the United States and the uncertainty regarding the results of the presidential elections in the USA – he explained.
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According to the economist, in the current conditions, investors reduce risk wherever they can.
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– It is difficult to choose a place where the EUR / PLN exchange rate will stop in the coming days. Technically it is at the level of 4.57-4.58. Fundamentally, it seems that the zloty should be stronger, but until the situation in the US calms down, the fundamentals do not matter – he said.
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US elections affect markets
Dr. Przemysław Kwiecień from XTB also noted a clear strengthening of the dollar, pointing to the role of “speculative capital” in this context. – There are also worsening pandemic statistics and the risk of new restrictions, as well as macroeconomic data that is losing a bit of momentum – he stressed
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In his opinion, “the election thread has not been heavily played by the markets so far.” – There was an assumption that (US President Donald – ed.) Trump would do everything to ensure that the atmosphere was good until then, and this was partially confirmed in the absence of specific actions aimed at China. But investors may be worried about something else – the chaos that may fall after November 3, said April.
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“The polls give Joe Biden an advantage, but it’s not great and if Trump lost slightly, he could contest the result and the case would end up in the Supreme Court. For the markets, it’s probably the worst-case scenario,” he stressed.
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According to the expert, “in view of such a turn of events, the market situation becomes tense”. In addition – as he noted – autumn is just beginning, and with it the risk of a worsening pandemic situation and the economic slowdown. “The zloty does not handle this situation well” – he noted.
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