EU countries agreed on Tuesday to consume 15 percent less gas in the coming months. This should prevent a shortage developing next winter. The EU patted itself on the chest on Tuesday with the agreement and spoke of unity in Europe. But if you look a little further, you will see that it is not so bad with that unit.
What exactly has been agreed?
That EU countries must use 15 percent less gas from the beginning of next month until the end of March next year than the average consumption of the past five years. With this, the countries want to respond to a possible supply stop by Russia, which is an important gas supplier and the supply continues to grow pinches off.
Countries should also be able to fill their gas reserves more easily. Furthermore, agreements have been made about mutual solidarity; if one country gets into trouble, other countries have to step in.
However, many exceptions have been made. For example, island states of Malta, Cyprus and Ireland do not have to participate. Their gas networks are not connected to other countries, which means that deliveries to other EU Member States are not possible. Furthermore, Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania are so dependent on Russian gas that savings are not feasible.
Countries that have already largely filled their gas reserves are also exempt. There is also Belgium, which supplies a lot of gas to other countries and therefore already does enough for others. And countries that need gas for essential industries don’t have to cut corners either. One EU country – Hungary – has not signed the agreement at all.
The countries that remain will initially be allowed to see for themselves whether they can reduce their consumption. If that doesn’t work, the EU can make it mandatory. Well, sort of. But more on that later.
Will this work if there are so many exceptions?
You can indeed question that. But without these exceptions, no agreement would have been reached at all. And better than nothing, they must have thought in Brussels.
What is the chance that Europe will run out of gas next winter?
That depends a lot on Russia. The country insists it delivers what it can. But meanwhile, Nord Stream 1, the main gas pipeline between Russia and Western Europe, is now running at only 20 percent of its maximum capacity. According to state gas company Gazprom, this is due to maintenance. But in the West this is doubted. Many countries think that Russia delivers less as a political means of pressure.
Anyway, there is less gas and we are already noticing that. Prices are going up and stocks are hard to fill. Countries that consume a lot of gas from Russia, such as Germany and countries in Central Europe, are especially at risk of a shortage.
That is also the reason why the EU wanted to conclude the agreement. According to Brussels, a saving of 15 percent is enough to get all countries through the winter safely. Even if Russia completely stops its deliveries in the short term. In addition, a possible mild winter also reduces the chance of a shortage.
What does this mean for the Netherlands? Should I turn down my heater later?
That can’t hurt anyway. Although many are probably already planning to do so because energy is becoming more and more expensive. But according to Energy Minister Rob Jetten, the Netherlands has recently reduced its total gas consumption to such an extent that we can achieve the target of 15 percent savings.
Nevertheless, the minister insists that we must be economical with gas in the Netherlands. But it seems unlikely that citizens will soon be subject to an obligation to save.
What if countries do not reach that 15 percent?
As mentioned before, the saving is voluntary for the time being. But in some cases, Brussels can make it mandatory. This is possible if an acute shortage threatens or if at least five Member States want such an obligation to be introduced. The European Commission can then make a proposal, which must be approved by at least fifteen member states. Those fifteen Member States must also represent another 65 percent of all EU residents. So if only fifteen small countries agree, there will be no obligation.
In addition, no penalties have been agreed for countries that do not save enough. If you add to that the fact that many countries do not have to save anyway, the question is whether this agreement will help much.
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