Ethereum Poised for Potential Breakout, Mimicking Bitcoin’s Bull Run

Ethereum’s open interest is surging, hinting at a possible breakout. This mirrors Bitcoin’s past performance. Technical indicators are showing a bullish structure, but ETH requires a major catalyst to surpass $2,600 in the near term. Are we seeing the calm before a crypto storm?

Ethereum’s Soaring Open Interest

Ethereum’s open interest hit a record $34.08 billion on June 18th, indicating aggressive positioning from derivatives traders and increased speculative interest. Institutional inflows are also rising, with over $500 million in weekly net inflows last week.

Echoes of Bitcoin’s Cycle

Market analyst TedPillows suggests that Ethereum’s present trajectory nearly mirrors Bitcoin’s 2017-2021 cycle. This includes an 85% decline, followed by a 350% rally, and then a 62% correction. If this pattern holds, Ethereum’s parabolic phase could be imminent once it decisively breaks above $4,000.

The current market sentiment suggests that both retail and institutional investors are growing more confident, supporting a sustained bullish breakout.

Technical Outlook and Market Dynamics

Ethereum currently trades at $2,541, comfortably above its 50-day and 200-day EMAs, a sign of bullish structure. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits at a neutral 50.20. However, the MACD is still in bearish territory. As of May 2025, over 68% of all Ether tokens were held by long-term investors, reflecting a strong belief in the asset’s future (CoinDesk).

The path ahead for Ethereum may depend on its ability to reclaim $2,600 with significant trading volume. While the trend leans towards bullishness, a substantial catalyst is necessary to ignite the breakout.