He came as called in 2016: the political deal with Turkey, which (partly) put an end to the refugee crisis, under which the European Union had already suffered for months.
Every day thousands of people reached the Greek coast in boats, to the despair of the authorities and the people there. Turkey would take those people back and stop other migrants in exchange for financial support from the EU.
With its decision to open the Turkish border with Greece, President Erdogan is now going against the deal. “Europe has not kept its promise,” he says, and so he can also violate the agreements. Is the Turkish president right? And what is left of the ambitious Turkey deal?
Financial support
The part of the deal that is most often named is the money. “The EU has pretty well respected that part,” says EU correspondent Bert van Slooten. Turkey would receive 6 billion, specifically intended to improve refugee reception in the country. That money, of which more than half has been transferred, is used, among other things, to fund the education of children in refugee camps.
The amount is a piece of cake, compared to the real costs of refugee reception in Turkey, complains the Turkish government. He says that he has now spent more than 30 billion on it. Currently 3.6 million Syrians are living in Turkey, in addition to hundreds of thousands of migrants from other countries.
One by one
Then a second important deal from the Turkey deal: the one-for-one principle. For every migrant who would take up Turkey, the EU would resettle another migrant in a European country. “At the time, the European Commission thought that the EU countries would be open to this,” says van Slooten.
That estimate turned out to be wrong. After four years, the EU has admitted some 25,000 Syrians from Turkey: just over half a percent of the total number of Syrians in Turkey, and much less than the 70,000 that were mentioned in 2016.
“The cause of this lies partly with the EU member states,” says Van Slooten. “Eastern European countries in particular refused to accept people.” There was also a practical problem: the slowness of the Greek asylum system. The number of applications has fallen sharply since 2016, but on the islands, migrants still have to wait 2 years for their (mandatory) asylum application to be processed. Only then can Greece send them back to Turkey.
In addition to these two agreements on the reception of refugees, the EU also made other commitments in the Turkey deal. This would make it easier for Turkish passport holders to travel to the EU from 2016 and to resume talks about Turkish accession to the EU. Erdogan resents the European Union for not having delivered on those promises, while European leaders blame Turkey for that.
What now?
The question remains: does Erdogan’s decision mark the end of the Turkey deal? “Not necessarily”, says EU correspondent Bert van Slooten. “That deal consists of various elements, some of which still persist. For example, the EU gives money until September, so that children can go to school in Turkish refugee camps.”
It has been clear for some time that European Commission President Von der Leyen wants to take a different approach with her asylum policy, says Van Slooten. She is expected to come up with a different plan in April.
Short-term
In the short term, European leaders now want to avoid too many migrants entering the EU, says Van Slooten. “And to put it flatly: you can only solve that kind of problem with money”.
Von der Leyen said today 700 million to Greece, of which 350 million euros is immediately available. Her colleague Charles Michel, the President of the European Council, asked Turkey to comply with the 2016 deal.
Sander van Hoorn, European Union correspondent, is on Lesbos and answered questions in a Q&A about the situation there and the threats from Turkey about a new flow of refugees:
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