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Emil Harsev
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The Bulgarian economy is already in shock and in this sense it is not yet ahead of us.
This is what the financier Emil Harsev commented to “24 Chasa” on the occasion of the latest forecast of “Standard and Poor’s”. On Saturday, the rating agency issued an opinion that the war in Ukraine will shock the Bulgarian economy and as a result, real growth in gross domestic product in 2022 will slow to 1.6% compared to their previous forecast of 4.3%, and the budget deficit will double to 5% of GDP.
According to Harsev, any upheaval that changes the current situation in the economy is a shock and in this sense Bulgaria is already experiencing it.
“We do not know whether a bomb will destroy critical infrastructure in Ukraine or the Black Sea at some point, and whether it will affect us. But existing supply chains have already been destroyed, grain is scarce in Europe, iron prices have skyrocketed, and so have energy supplies. In fact, we are like in 1941 – then people did not know if and when the world war would end. And when a war is over, more years of recovery will follow, “Harsev said.
However, he claims that the current economic shock can in no way be compared to the crises that our country experienced in the early 1990s and later in 1996-1997.
“The current crisis has not led to mass closures that have thrown tens of thousands of people into the streets. Nor do we have such high inflation as the hyperinflation we experienced in the mid-1990s. And our exports have not shrunk at all, on the contrary, “said Harsev.
Inflation now – 14% on an annual basis, according to official data, also can not be compared with inflation in the winter of 1996-1997, when prices rose by 40-50% each month.
According to Emil Harsev, the shock so far is expressed in the changing structure of consumption.
Standard & Poor’s claims in its latest forecast that the shock to the Bulgarian economy will be temporary and it will come out of it in 2023 due to the then incoming grants from the Recovery and Sustainability Plan and the beginning of a new budget period of operational programs.
However, Hursev believes that the recovery of our economy depends too much on the war in Ukraine, and until it is over, no predictions can be made as to when we will recover from the shock.
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