Home » Business » Economy: Trade balance would register a surplus of US $ 1,500 million in the ter

Economy: Trade balance would register a surplus of US $ 1,500 million in the ter

The country’s trade balance will register a surplus of more than US $ 1.5 billion in the third quarter, according to Scotiabank projections.

The estimate foresees that the positive trend of the trade balance will be consolidated and the fall of the second quarter will be reversed, where the result was a deficit of US $ 271 million.

According to the bank, foreign trade activities were affected by the restrictions applied by the government to contain the advance of the COVID-19.

This performance would be due to the recovery of exports, driven both by the higher volume -especially mining, fishing and agribusiness- and by the rally in the price of gold and copper, which has been having a positive impact on the export price index- IPX.

On the other hand, imports would also recover, although at a slower rate than exports, in line with the gradual recovery of domestic demand, being led by purchases of consumer goods and, to a lesser extent, by capital goods, since private investment would take longer to recover.

June

In June, the trade balance registered a surplus of US $ 434 million, leaving behind two successive months of deficit. However, the positive balance was about half of that obtained a year ago, according to figures from the Central Reserve Bank (BCR).

Exports were driven mainly by mining products, which accounted for three-quarters of the increase in exports compared to May. The gradual recovery of export volumes -especially of gold, zinc and copper- as a result of the reopening of mining activity from May, together with the improvement in the price of copper -the gold rally only started in July- explained this evolution.

For their part, imports remained practically stagnant, reflecting the weakness of domestic demand. Fuel purchases continued to be depressed -due to high inventories and low oil prices- which was partially offset by higher purchases of non-durable consumer goods -especially products linked to the fight against oil. COVID-19 like medicines and masks.

Exports

Exports totaled US $ 2.68 billion in June, their highest level in the last three months and higher by US $ 702 million (+ 35.5%) compared to May. However, this level is still lower at 34.6% compared to the same month of 2019.

Traditional products reached US $ 1,838 million (+ 46.6% compared to May) thanks to higher mining exports. Within the latter, the largest shipments of gold stood out, thanks to the rebound in exported volume from Yanacocha and the restart of shipments from Barrick; as well as the higher exported value of copper due to the sustained recovery in the price given the recovery of the activity level of the world economy; as well as the resumption of exports from Antamina.

Non-traditional products amounted to US $ 834 million (+ 16.4% compared to May) in line with the gradual process of reopening industrial activities since mid-May.

At a disaggregated level, the largest shipments of textiles stood out (+ 106.1%), although their level was half of that reported in June 2019; steel-metallurgical (+ 53.8%); and metalworking (+ 75.9%), after restarting their production after the quarantine.

For its part, agro-exports (+ 7.5%) continued its positive evolution, as it was one of the few activities that did not stop operations during the quarantine and that international demand for food remains solid.

Imports

Imports amounted to US $ 2,246 million in June, an amount higher by only US $ 45 million (+ 2.0%) compared to May and lower by 29.4% compared to June 2019.

“The imported value was below our estimate because the recovery of purchases of consumer goods and capital goods was offset by lower purchases of inputs”the bank noted in its weekly report.

Imports of consumer goods amounted to US $ 634 million (+ 13.9% compared to May). At a disaggregated level, non-durable consumer goods (+ 9.7%) were driven by higher purchases of products linked to the fight against coronavirus, such as medicines and personal protection masks. This product registered an imported value of US $ 131 million in June after having reported only US $ 5 million in all of 2019.

This was partially offset by lower purchases of clothing, footwear and cosmetics due to the contraction of private consumption. Durable consumer goods (+ 29.3%) were favored by the gradual increase in demand for new vehicles.

Imports of capital goods reached US $ 652 million (+ 7.0% compared to May). The most dynamic items were transportation equipment (+ 48.1%) and capital goods for industry (+ 4.3%), given the gradual recovery in truck demand in line with the gradual reactivation of private investment -especially mining – and, to a lesser extent, from public investment.

Imports of inputs amounted to US $ 1,031 million (-7.3% compared to May) due to lower purchases of raw materials for the industry (-7.8%). It should be noted that the industrial sector has been recovering more slowly than we had anticipated, which translates into lower demand for imported inputs such as plastic, paper, textiles and steel.

Likewise, the negative evolution of the fuels category continued (-4.8%) due to the high levels of inventories and a demand for oil that was still below pre-levels. COVID-19 This meant that in June there were no crude purchases for the second consecutive month.

Leave a Comment

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.