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The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) would have fallen between 8% and 10% in July, compared to the same month in 2019, according to Scotiabank calculations when considering leading indicators such as electricity production.
The primary sectors would have led the trend, highlighting fishing, due to the positive results of the first anchovy season, and mining, which is heading towards a recovery in the shape of a “V” driven by the rise in the price of minerals.
Regarding non-primary sectors, they would continue to recover, but at a slower pace due to the impact on domestic demand due to the temporary loss of jobs due to the closure of some economic activities due to COVID-19.
“The speed of the reactivation would be differentiated, with sectors such as construction – cement shipments recovered strongly in July – and commerce – the sale of light vehicles doubled in July vs. June- leading the trend, and others such as non-primary manufacturing and services recovering more slowly due to the restrictions still in force in some branches of the latter sector, such as transportation “The bank mentioned in its weekly report.
In June, economic activity continued to recover, as the process of resuming activities allowed most of the economy to return to operation after the gradual lifting of the quarantine that began in May.
In this context, GDP fell 18.1% in the sixth month of the year, its lowest level of contraction in the last three months, and in line with what was expected by the consensus of analysts, according to Reuters. In seasonally adjusted terms, GDP grew 14.6% compared to May, according to INEI figures.
“The 30.2% drop reported by GDP in the second quarter was practically in line with our estimate of -31%. In this sense, we project that the GDP will close 2020 with a fall of 11.5%, below the contraction of 17.4% accumulated during the first half of the year “, the bank pointed out.
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