Shipping companies, which transport 90% of the world’s goods, do not believe in a rapid recovery of the global economy. The orders they placed with shipyards (mainly Asian) have never been so low since 2003. However, at the time, the global fleet in service was half the size than today. It then had a total carrying capacity of 840 million tonnes against 1.99 billion in 2019.
The most sudden drop in orders between the first semesters of 2019 and 2020 concerns bulk carriers (-65%), which transport minerals and cereals. Container ships are down by 40%. The trend is less marked for carriers of crude oil (- 4%) and fuels (- 12%) because their orders had already declined before the Covid.
Not only do the ship owners not renew all the ships which, when they reach 30 years old, are scrapped, but they send older units there to pocket, for lack of anything better, what the demolition companies in China will give them, in Bangladesh or Turkey.
Our colleagues from Marin estimate that 200 shipyards are threatened with extinction. The blow will be severe for Chinese manufacturers (world leaders), koreans and Japanese, where announced mergers will not save everything.
The impact is less in Europe, where we no longer build cargo ships, but only steamers and specialized vessels (military, for dredging, offshore). However, before the Covid crisis, the old continent lost five sites in two years in Germany, Spain, Croatia and Norway.
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