However, there will be no repeat of 1998
–
Since the beginning of summer, the Russian national currency has fallen by 10 rubles against the euro and by 6 rubles against the dollar. The dramatic fall makes you wonder if this August will turn black again. Economists are vying with each other to assess the likelihood of a repetition of the 1998 default and talk about another ruble devaluation. Imported goods are growing in price by leaps and bounds. Population incomes are falling, companies are closing. Experts interviewed by MK told what awaits the economy and the ruble in the fall.
–
Last week, the well-known economist Ruslan Grinberg gave a bleak forecast in an interview with MK: the ruble will continue to fall against world currencies, and devaluation is inevitable. Only in July – August the “wooden” one weakened by 10-12%. Such a drop is considered very large and sets a depressing trend.
Since the start of the pandemic, the fall is even more shocking. At the end of February, 68 rubles were given for the euro, and now 87 rubles. The dollar fell by 10 rubles in six months: it cost 64 rubles, and now it is 74 rubles.
According to Grinberg, the expectation of a second wave of coronavirus, a drop in oil prices, sanctions, and a decrease in the key rate of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation are not in favor of the ruble.
If the devaluation of the ruble is a very real threat, then there is no need to fear default in its traditional sense (refusal of the state from its obligations). A repetition of the 1998 default next year and in the medium term is unlikely, experts at the Higher School of Economics said. According to analysts, the current economic situation is very different from what it was 22 years ago: now the country has reserves with a low level of public debt.
“The Russian economy and financial sector are in a more stable position than in 1998. Then, in a week, the ruble depreciated four times, prices soared, and over a year the salaries of Russians depreciated three to five times. Now Russia has gold and foreign exchange reserves, and inflation is stable, – agrees the head of the analytical department of AMarkets, – But what should be feared is a decrease in wages and an increase in unemployment, as well as an increase in prices. The reduction of wages in the country is already taking place – employers are actively cutting personnel costs, lowering the level of bonuses, cutting working hours. “
The expert also named several categories of goods that have risen noticeably against the background of the strengthening of the euro and dollar.
“The prices for imported household appliances, cars, luxury goods have especially grown – by 20-30%. The products of the agro-industrial complex, the goods of the processing industry are also growing due to the devaluation of the ruble. In our country, almost any product has an imported component: in sausage there are spices and preservatives, as well as compound feed for raising animals and veterinary preparations, in pasta and cereals – packaging, etc. Now everything is becoming more expensive, except for seasonal products, ”added the analyst.
Alexey Krichevsky, an expert at the Academy of Finance and Investment Management, also warns about the devaluation of the ruble. “The devaluation may well lower the“ wooden ”one to 80 and 100 rubles against the dollar and the euro, respectively. It should be understood that the weak ruble partly replaces the shortfall in oil and gas revenues, since the proceeds are received in foreign currency, which is beneficial to the budget, ”emphasizes our interlocutor.
According to his forecast, the ruble has no chances of appreciable strengthening in the coming months. “In the best case, it will remain in the corridor of 70-76 rubles per dollar and 83-89 rubles per euro,” suggested Aleksey Krichevsky.
Artem Deev also expects strengthening of the dollar and euro against the ruble. “During a crisis, the currencies of developing countries always decline as investors stop investing in such risky markets. Difficulties are now experienced not only by the ruble, but also, for example, the Turkish lira. But the attractiveness of stable developed currencies is growing. In addition, oil prices in any scenario will not rise above $ 50 per barrel. The forecast for the fall is negative: since there are no serious factors for the strengthening of the ruble, the rate of 75-78 is possible against the dollar and 89-90 against the euro, “the analyst concluded.
Read also: “You need to buy gold regularly”: an economist gave advice
–
