The dollar in Colombia He won 47 pesos during the week and closed this Friday at an average price of $ 3,367.
Only today he won 14 pesos against the TRM of the day that was $ 3,353.
The US currency started on Monday with a Representative Market Rate of $ 3,320. The fall in oil prices marked their trend.
The foreign currency thus completed its third week of upward movement. Since the beginning of this year the dollar has not stopped on its rise, although not with the same strength of previous months, a dollar has not yet been observed under 3,200 pesos since July 2019.
(The sharp decline in oil prices persists).
According to Alexander Ríos, an economic analyst at Strategic Consulting, this time, the uncertainty was caused by the coronavirus outbreak in the Far East.
The strong measures implemented by the Chinese government to control the departure and entry of travelers, in addition to the precautionary restrictions on international trade until they have full knowledge of the virus propagation mechanism, This week they injected uncertainty into world markets, which, given the possibility of a pandemic and a global alert declared by the WHO, run towards dollar-denominated refuge assets.
Meanwhile, the EEM ISHARES MSCI index that indicates flows to emerging countries shows a strong weakening for the month of January, indicating a strong capital outflow from countries with commercial dependence on the Asian economy.
(The new virus that has the world on alert).
On the other hand, the oil market does not raise, with this it adjusts its seventh trading day down from 60 dollars per barrel to 54 dollars per barrel in its WTI reference.
“In this sense, it is vital to remember that Colombia continues to be a country highly dependent on oil revenues that contribute to the medium and long-term fiscal landscape. Likewise, although it is one of the few countries in the region that has an interesting growth, a fiscal deterioration will have a significant impact on the credit rating and therefore inject upward pressure on the local exchange rate for the medium term.“.
(USA and other countries with confirmed cases of coronavirus).
Finally, the local and international panorama, although they are not at their worst, there are no clear indications of an improvement in them, therefore the natural trend of the Colombian dollar will be bullish for the medium and long term.
FORECAST
For Strategic, the trading range will be $ 3,370 and $ 3,440 pesos per dollar for next week. If there are new commercial tensions or oil falls, 3500 pesos would again be the level to consider.
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