The turbulence that strikes the price of the dollar does not subside And the causes could remain for several days or even weeks, since they are due to several factors: the coronavirus, in the first place, which caused measures by the President of the United States, Donald Trump, to close flights to Europe for 30 days.
In Colombia, President Iván Duque decreed a health emergency on Thursday for the same reason.
This happens amid a black outlook for the international price of oil, with a strong downward trend. This Thursday the Texas (WTI) lost 6.8%, hit by the words of Trump and the declaration of a pandemic by the WHO. Analysis.
When various elements against it come together, as this time, the risks to the global economy continue to generate uncertainty and become a wave. Even there are already world economists talking about a global recession.
In the case of Colombia, although the Minister of Finance, Alberto Carrasquilla, has said -until Wednesday- that the country’s macroeconomic conditions are on dry ground, without being able to reach the swampy wave of turbulence, they have been adding various circumstances that could change the course of the Colombian economy ship. Cut, analysts no longer see that the economy can grow at the rate estimated for this year: 3.7%, revised down from 4% last February.
The Government revised downward the projection for growth of the economy in 2020, from 4% to 3.7%, a figure that could be modified again
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In the international environment is the oil price war, caused by OPEC and Russia. This has led the barrel of the country’s main export product to be quoted at prices between USD $ 33.26 and USD $ 36.2, a range that is almost half of what the national government estimated at the time of make accounts of your finances for this and next year.
There is also the pandemic, which although it has already entered moderate terrain in the country where the coronavirus (China) originated, is moving in the rest of the nations of the world and running over all the economic and social variables that it finds in its path.
Uncertainty, the worst enemy
The escalation of tensions, both on account of the coronavirus and the situation of the powerful oil companies, fuels tension and uncertainty at every moment.
In particular in Colombia, the peso has devalued more sharply and on this Thursday, the dollar is trading above 4,000 pesos.
It should be borne in mind that the volatility of the dollar in the last week has been an attack, due to general nervousness due to fears of external events, but, no matter how ‘armored’ the economy is, according to the Government’s point of view , there will come a time when the effects reach the citizens.
Analysts, unlike the Government, believe that there is already an ‘economic contagion’ due to the presence of the coronavirus. And the worst thing is that it is an unpredictable phenomenon, which, even with the measures taken, it is impossible to estimate the magnitudes that it may have.
How people are affected
1. If the law of supply and demand appliesOnline orders would go up, which would end up increasing prices in this way, which has been a relief for Colombians, in cases such as the purchase of air tickets, clothing, technological products, among others.
2. Tourism, one of the great affected, to the point that it is among those chosen by the national government, to receive the economic stimuli established so far, also impacts the Colombian as a consumer. Once the tide is over, prices in this sector could increase, reducing what had already been earned: to start moving as a sector of the so-called orange economy.
3. Among foreign exchange recipientsAs long as the dollar is on the rise, the turbulent situation is beneficial for them. The problem could come later, when the medium-term effects on the global economy begin, with less demand and, consequently, a reduction in production, which, in the long run, could lead to employment does not grow at the rate it was before the turbulence.
Twitter: @marthamoralesm
ECONOMY AND BUSINESS
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