Netanyahu’s Nuclear Gamble: Israel’s Assault on Iran
The escalating conflict between Israel and Iran has the potential to reshape the Middle East. With attacks on Iranian nuclear sites underway, the situation is volatile, with the potential for wider regional involvement and devastating consequences.
Immediate Goals and Strategic Moves
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has signaled that the military campaign targeting Iran’s nuclear facilities could span at least two weeks. This timeframe suggests a deliberate, phased strategy by the Israel Defense Forces and intelligence agencies. Initially, Israel focused on disabling Iran’s military and scientific leadership, while crippling air defenses.
With Iranian airspace now accessible, Israeli aircraft can refuel and deploy special forces to key locations. This enables pinpoint strikes on critical targets and the destruction of well-guarded nuclear sites. According to statements, Netanyahu has emphasized two main objectives: eliminating Iran’s nuclear ambitions and encouraging the Iranian populace to overthrow the current regime.
Breaking: Israeli forces have launched strikes against key targets in Iran, including nuclear facilities and military infrastructure. #Israel #Iran #BreakingNews
“The goal is to dismantle Iran’s nuclear program, and to inspire the Iranian people to rise up.”
—Benjamin Netanyahu, Israeli Prime Minister
As of mid-2024, Iran’s stockpile of highly enriched uranium is estimated to be enough for six to ten nuclear weapons if processed further (Council on Foreign Relations).
Possible Outcomes and Escalation Risks
One potential outcome is a return to negotiations. However, this scenario appears unlikely, as Netanyahu opposes such talks. He is keen to leverage the weakening of Iran to bolster his security credentials following the Hamas attacks of late 2023.
Another potential outcome is the complete destruction of Iran’s nuclear program. This would require the destruction of all known sites, including the Fordow uranium enrichment facility, located deep underground. Even U.S. deep penetration bombs may be insufficient to destroy it.
Destruction of the centrifuges is just one step in dismantling Iran’s program. Israel would need to secure or eliminate Iran’s supply of 60% enriched uranium, which is sufficient for several nuclear bombs.
The Regime’s Future and Regional Dynamics
A third scenario involves the collapse of the Iranian regime. The recent strikes have removed key military leaders, including the heads of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and the Iranian armed forces. The regime has endured many challenges, but its advanced security systems have enabled it to remain in power.
The US could become involved in the fighting. Iran’s UN ambassador accused the U.S. of assisting Israel with its strikes. Senior Republicans, such as Senator Lindsey Graham, have called for Trump to order US forces to help Israel “finish the job.” Russia and regional powers like Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates are unlikely to join the conflict.
Uncertainties and the Path Ahead
Iran has the potential to cause more civilian casualties. This could cause Israelis to question Netanyahu’s choices in starting a new conflict. Iran will likely leave the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty and forbid more inspections by the International Atomic Energy Agency. While Israel may destroy current facilities, Iran is likely to rebuild them.
The long-term consequence could be a more determined Iran, seeking nuclear weapons to deter future Israeli attacks, making the region even more unstable.
