‘Day trip’ from Scholz to high-voltage China

• Charlotte Waaijers

  correspondent Germany

When a visit to China is as delicate as that of German Chancellor Scholz in China tomorrow, words matter. In the Kanzleramt they prefer not to call it a state visit, but an exploratory trip, or even a ‘day trip’. Because a hotel was not booked for Scholz due to strict crown regulations, but that doesn’t make the shortest ever visit by a chancellor any less controversial.

Scholz becomes the first major Western leader to visit President Xi in three years and the first after Xi recently bolstered his power to an unprecedented level. It is also the first since Russia started the war in Ukraine, which China is not resisting as much as Western countries would like.

Meanwhile, Germany’s economic dependence on China is increasing. Last week, the Chancellor made sure one hand for that a Chinese state-owned company has been authorized to purchase part of a terminal in the port of Hamburg. Critics see this as a gift to Xi at a time when other Western countries want to make themselves more independent from China. With what message does the Chancellor go to Beijing?

“Germany is the most important state in Europe when it comes to Chinese politics, and also the state that needs to change the most,” said Thorsten Benner. He is director of the GPPI, a German think tank for international affairs. “As a lesson from our failed dependence on Russia, we now have to decide how much dependence on China we can afford,” he continues, referring to Germany’s problematic dependence on Russian gas.

Everyone in the government seems to agree that Germany shouldn’t repeat that mistake. But not about the best way to deal with it. “The criticism of Scholz so far is that his Chinese policy is not clear enough,” Benner said. “This visit comes at an important time.”

This Chinese policy must have two sides. On the one hand, there is the growing threat from Beijing to Taiwan, human rights violations in XinJiang and Hong Kong and the relationship between Xi and Putin. On the other hand, Germany is economically dependent on China.

The two sides are closely related, because Germany’s dependence on China determines how hard Germany can act in other areas. If, for example, the conflict between Beijing and Taiwan escalates and sanctions are imposed on China, German companies such as chemical group BASF, electronics giant Siemens or VW automaker will also have a big problem.

Germany must therefore reduce this dependence as quickly as possible, the German economic institute IW also recently established. But it’s the other way around.

In the first six months of this year, German investment in China has already been higher than in any other year since 2000. Furthermore, far more goods flow from China to Germany than vice versa. Germany is also dependent in this respect, especially as regards the import of rare earths, for example, necessary for technologies such as solar panels.

Inside and outside Germany, criticism of the visit is now so great that Scholz, who is not known as a good communicator, was forced to explain in a piece in the FAZ newspaper and on the English-language site Politico. Under the title This is the reason for my trip to China explains why it is important for Germany to remain pragmatic.

Turning away from the country would only contribute to the formation of new power blocs around the world, Scholz said. “Germany, which painfully experienced the division during the Cold War, does not want it.”

Instead, he wants a personal meeting with Xi, in which he can explore how Beijing views a future relationship. For example, China remains needed to jointly combat climate change. At the same time, she hopes she can persuade the Chinese president to stop Putin from deploying nuclear weapons in Ukraine.

The question is whether it could reinforce that message if it brought other European leaders with it. French President Macron wanted to go, but he was not allowed. “Many in Europe see this as a journey of the German ego: Germany first and act first,” says Benner.

He believes that Scholz should have put together a political delegation instead of the commercial delegation with BASF, VW and Siemens. “This is a fatal sign, demonstrating that it still allows these companies to become increasingly dependent on the Chinese market.”