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Cyclone Herold: Mauritius finally spared

Through Quentin PERCEROU, editor
Posted on 3/13/20, updated on 3/16/20 at 8:22 a.m.-

A tropical depression has formed in the northeast of Madagascar. This depression, which became cyclone HEROLD, passed yesterday off the coast of Réunion. It passes 350 km. of Mauritius and has less impact than initially feared.

The cyclonic season in the southwest Indian Ocean has a jagged activity, with calm phases and violent jolts of activity. One thinks in particular of the month of November, virgin of any system, and in the month of December when two systems, Ambali and Belna, were born at the same time. The first of them, Ambali, even became a very intense tropical cyclone, with average winds of 220 km / h over 10 minutes.

Since the end of January, apart from the anecdotal tropical cyclone Gabekile, no system in sight. The cyclone truce ended on Friday with tropical storm Herold, which lies northeast of Madagascar.

Tropical cyclone Herold

This Monday, tropical cyclone Herold is 605 km north-northwest of the Reunion coast. The estimated system pressure, one of the important indicators for estimating the power of a tropical system, is 972 hPa. The lower this value, the more powerful the system will be. The satellite images allow us to observe a significant convection and a low pressure winding characteristic of an ongoing cyclogenesis and intensification.

Maximum winds averaged over 10 minutes are estimated at 120 and gusts at 165 km / h.

Evolution and planned trajectory

This Monday, Herold is turning its east-south-east trajectory towards Mauritius. And as this cyclone meets conditions favorable to its intensification, with warm water of 29 ° C and a variation of the winds from altitude in direction as in low speed, this allows the tropical cyclone Herold to organize itself well and reach category 3/5 Monday according toSaffir-Simpson scale.

Consequences for Reunion and Mauritius

Given the current trajectory, this tropical system passes closer to the islands on Monday. The expected impacts are moderate because Herold remains far from the coastlines of Réunion. But just because the system will be remote doesn’t mean it won’t be without consequences.

Thus, the Reunion coastlines experience a significant cyclonic swell. This Monday, the waves could reach 3 to 4 meters on the north and east coasts. It is mainly Mauritius that is affected, with waves that can reach 5 to 7 meters.

In connection with this system, some thunderstorm showers occur on Reunion, especially in the southeast. These showers do not bring significant cumulative rain. On the other hand, Mauritius, located as close as possible to Herold’s trajectory, suffered more heavy rains until Tuesday, but the risk of flooding remains low.

Reunion and Mauritius are therefore outside the zone of strong winds according to current forecasts. However, gusts of winds of 100 km / h at the time of the passage of this tropical cyclone as close as possible to its Mauritian coastlines on Monday. It is also advisable to follow the evolution of the trajectory for Rodrigues which could meet difficult conditions.

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