Crisis between China and the United States: What awaits Latin America (and incidentally Colombia)?

The relationship between the United States and China is rapidly transforming from one of rivalry to one of open and explicit confrontation. This transformation is going to prevent the Global South and particularly Latin America from continuing to crouch down in the attempt to make a three-way carom. An inaccurate reading of this situation, especially for a country like Colombia, starting a new government committed to a fundamental political shift, could have disastrous effects on our process of international insertion.

The famous American policy of strategic ambiguity towards China, a policy that recognizes the existence of a single China and simultaneously maintains close relations in non-diplomatic settings with Taiwan, has so far maintained a certain balance that has allowed the world to live without the fear that the tension between the two powers will escalate. turn into an armed conflict. The visit of Nancy Pelosi – head of the US House of Representatives – to Taiwan last week is the latest in a series of events that threaten to break the few and increasingly tenuous areas of convergence and collaboration between the two most powerful countries. of the planet.

China interpreted this visit as an aggression and a provocation that crossed the limit of what was tolerable. This act is even more offensive to the Chinese leadership considering that Xi Jinping is just a few months away from a congress of his party in which he intends to be re-elected for a third term. For all this Beijing reacted vehemently. Two days after Pelosi’s arrival, he launched a series of military exercises around the island that already threaten to turn into a blockade. As confirmed by the map The Economistthe response on this occasion has been the strongest since the last crisis that led Clinton to deploy warships in the Taiwan Strait.

This being the case, the status quo, that tense balance between the two countries, is beginning to crumble. The war in Ukraine is closely linked to this situation: China believes that Washington is trying to prevent Russia’s aggression against Ukraine from being repeated in the case of China and Taiwan (and it is somewhat right). Such an outrageous act to deter an attack threatens China’s long-standing principle that it reserves the use of whatever instruments are necessary to advance its reunification plans. But the effect generated by Pelosi’s visit may be, paradoxically, not dissuasive if not quite the opposite, bringing China and Russia even closer and this would only end up deteriorating Washington’s already fragile position on the global stage.

The tension can also translate into an intensification of the Chinese plan to reach out to the Global South to erode US power and that is where Latin America comes into the picture. Until now, Latin Americans (with variations) have played pool with impunity—approaching China with some caution and maintaining a cordial relationship with Washington—but the more the conflict has intensified, the less room for maneuver there will be for this type of strategy. Washington’s tolerance for overtures to China is going to decrease dramatically and the costs of ambivalence are going to increase.

This year, in April, China revealed its Global Security Initiative, an attempt to create a global order that works for its interests and to create a space to increase its number of international partners. Everything seems to indicate that China also wants to be the world’s policeman. In this sense, its interest in Latin America has ceased to be purely commercial, and proof of this is that in August of this year, Venezuela will host a sniper competition that is part of a military exercise led by Russia in the Western Hemisphere and in which China, Russia, Iran and 10 other countries will participate. Foreign Affairs has called this a show of force against the United States.

Everything seems to indicate that the space for pragmatism without consequences and for the diversification of ties with international powers is closing and Latin America will have to make forceful and difficult decisions. Washington’s eyes are on the new Colombian government and its leftist allies in the region.

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