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Covid in Italy, monitoring: “there is a risk of rapid deterioration”

A relaxation of the measures, in particular for events and initiatives at risk of aggregation in public and private places, and of individual behaviors, also linked to moments of impromptu aggregation, makes the risk of a rapid epidemic worsening concrete. To write it, in the weekly report on the situation of the Covid pandemic in Italy, are the Ministry of Health and the Higher Institute of Health. The report referred to the week 21-27 September (the data of today’s bulletin, Friday 2 October, I’m here). Although there are still no signs of overburdening of health care services, the observed trend could soon be reflected in greater engagement.

The Rt index in Italy, today

According to the report, the RT in Italy is above the guard level of 1, albeit slightly – 1.01. The Rt index – which serves to calculate the number of infected people, on average, by each infected person, as explained here – for calculated on symptomatic cases: which means that it underrepresents the risk, as there are many asymptomatics capable, potentially, of expanding the infection.

The new outbreaks, even in schools

Sars-CoV-2 virus is circulating across the country today: cases are on the rise for the ninth consecutive week, and the median age of cases continues to rise (42 years versus 41 in the previous week) – which means that there there are more and more elderly people, and potentially at risk, among the infected. The active outbreaks (the identification of 2 or more positive cases connected to each other) are 3,266, of which 909 are new. This week, 14 outbreaks were also reported in which transmission could have occurred in the school setting, although currently not always confirmed, the report reads. In the coming weeks, the impact of infections in schools will be better assessed.

The Rt index in the various Regions

Here is the Rt index recorded in the various Regions, and the incidence per 100 thousand inhabitants.

Sicily: Rt 1.19, incidence 138.45 per 100,000
Umbria: Rt 1.07, incidence 269.12 per 100,000
Sardinia: Rt 0.86, incidence 211.96 per 100,000
Valle d’Aosta: Rt 0.97, incidence 1035.05 per 100,000
Tuscany: Rt 0.96, incidence 385.77 per 100,000
Piedmont: Rt 1.22, incidence 813.47 per 100,000
Bolzano: Rt 1.12, incidence 657.98 per 100,000
Trento: Rt 1.06, incidence 1094.82 per 100,000
Puglia: Rt 1.02, incidence 191.78 per 100,000
Lombardy: Rt 0.86, incidence 1053 per 100,000
Brands: Rt 0.99, incidence 521.6 per 100,000
Molise: Rt 0.7, incidence 213.06 per 100,000
Lazio: Rt 1.09, incidence 275.58 per 100,000
Liguria: Rt 1.16, incidence 857 per 100,000
Emilia-Romagna: Rt 0.8, incidence 786.03 per 100,000
Friuli-Venezia Giulia: Rt 1, incidence 382.79 per 100,000
Calabria: Rt 1.06, incidence 100.38 per 100,000
Campania: 1.19, Rt 196.86 per 100,000
Basilicata: Rt 0.7, incidence 127.84 per 100,000
Abruzzo: Rt 1.17, incidence 335.59 per 100,000
Veneto: Rt 1.1, incidence 556.51 per 100,000.

Article being updated …


2 October 2020 (change October 2, 2020 | 19:03)

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