Covid, Gimbe: strong increase in infections, + 40% in one week First effects also on deaths

The contagion curve has soared and this time it is Campania, with 2,708 new cases of coronavirus, 912 more, in the week 30 September-6 October, compared to the previous week. In total, the new cases in Italy, according to the independent monitoring of the Gimbe Foundation, are in sharp increase: 17,252 new weekly cases (there were 12,114, the growth is 42.4%) compared to a slightly higher number of cases tested (429,984 against 394,396), in addition to a significant increase in the positive / cases tested (4%, they were 3.1%). The cases confirmed by the Civil Protection as of October 7, are 333,940. From an epidemiological point of view, currently positive cases are growing (60,134 compared to 50,630) and, on the hospital front, patients hospitalized with symptoms (3,625 against 3,048) and in intensive care (319 against 271, + 17.7%) increase. Deaths also continue to rise, albeit slowly (155, they were 137: the increase is 13.1%).

It virus

«In the last week – he says Nino Cartabellotta, President of the Gimbe Foundation – the contagion curve has soared, as a result of the net increase in the positive / tested cases ratio. The constant growth of patients hospitalized with symptoms and of those in intensive care is also confirmed ». Since mid-July, the new weekly cases have more than tenfolded (from just over 1,400 to more than 17 thousand), with an increase in the positive / case ratio from 0.8% to 4%. This trend has generated the progressive increase in the currently positive cases, which have quintupled since the end of July: from 12,482 to 60,134. “The increase in the positive / tested cases ratio – explains the president – confirms that the virus circulates in a more sustained manner: for this reason, in the regions where it exceeds 5% it is crucial to strengthen testing & tracing activities”.

The situation in hospitals

To exceed 5%, in the week 30 September-6 October, are Liguria (7,7%), Campania (6,3%), Autonomous Province of Trento (6,8%), Piedmont (6,2%) e Valle d’Aosta (5.4%). In terms of hospitalizations, from the end of July there has been an increase in patients hospitalized with symptoms and in intensive care, which have increased respectively from 732 to 3,625 and from 49 to 319. “If the national data – points out Cartabellotta – does not let us glimpse any overload of hospital services, relevant regional differences are beginning to emerge ». Especially on October 6th well 8 Regions recorded hospitalization rates per 100 thousand inhabitants above the national average of 6.5: Lazio (13.9), Liguria (13), Campania (9.2), Sardinia (8.8), Sicily (7.9), Piedmont (7.1), Abruzzo and Puglia (6.6). «The percentage composition of the currently positive cases – continues the President – has remained constant since early July: on average 93-94% of the positives are in home isolation because they are asymptomatic / oligosymptomatic; 5-6% hospitalized with symptoms and 0.5% in intensive care. However, even for this indicator the regional differences turn on further red lights ». In some Regions, in fact, the percentage of hospitalized cases is clearly higher than the national average of 6.6%: Sicily (11.5%), Liguria (10.4%) Lazio (9.9%), Puglia (8, 9%), Piedmont (8.6%), Abruzzo (8.2%), Basilicata (7.9%).

Play in advance

Also in terms of deaths from the beginning of September a slow but steady increase trend begins to emerge: the number of deceased patients increased from 46 to 155 per week. In other words, explains the President, “the dynamics of the epidemic, very different from the first wave, show that the progressive increase in currently positive cases which began at the end of July, after a month triggered the increase in hospitalized patients with symptoms and in therapy intensive, and after 2 months, it also begins to reflect on deaths ». “The obligation of masks even outdoors – concludes Cartabellotta – it is a measure consistent with the rapid rise of infections, given that we do not yet know the real impact of the reopening of schools and that of the further overload of health services following the flu season. However, to contain the second wave, in particular in the central-southern regions, the Gimbe Foundation reiterates the need to anticipate the virus on all fronts: in particular, it is essential to strengthen and standardize the standards of territorial health care and hospital, as well as finding a solution for reduce the high risk of contagion on public transport».

8 October 2020 (change October 8, 2020 | 10:45 am)

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