(CNN) — A fresh look at the possible origins of the COVID-19 pandemic points directly to the Huanan seafood market in the Chinese city of Wuhan, a scientist who has studied the pandemic from the beginning said Thursday.
University of Arizona researcher Michael Worobey drew up a detailed timeline of all known SARS-Cov-2 cases before a pandemic was known to be starting.
Worobey found that many of them occurred in people who lived or worked near the market, the original suspected source of the pandemic, even though they had no direct links to the market.
But as Chinese government officials tried to deflect the blame, and as the Trump administration and, later, intelligence officials from the biden administration, pointed to the possibility of a virology research laboratory in Wuhan, the picture has become confusing.
Worobey, who specializes in tracing the genetic evolution of viruses, found considerable evidence that the virus arose in an animal, and it did not begin to circulate until the end of 2019. It has published multiple studies on the probable origins of the virus. But he said he wanted to check his own theories against the real evidence of what was known about real people with documented infections.
So he dived into the known cases. He says what he found reinforces the theory that the virus originated in animals sold on the market, much like the first SARS outbreak in 2002-2004, which infected 8,000 people before being arrested.
One case particularly stood out: that of a 41-year-old accountant, who allegedly fell ill on December 8, 2019 and had no relation to the market. The case has been cited as proof that the pandemic could not start there. Worobey found records showing that the man did not become ill with COVID-19 until later in December and that his problem on December 8 was related to his teeth.
“This is corroborated by hospital records and a scientific article reporting that the onset date for covid-19 was December 16 and the hospitalization date was December 22,” Worobey wrote in a comment in the journal Science.
That would make a seafood vendor working at the market who fell ill on Dec. 11, 2019, in the earliest documented case, Worobey said.
Other research helped Worobey map the earliest cases that groups them around the market.
“That so many of the more than 100 covid-19 cases identified in December, who had no epidemiological link to the Huanan market, yet lived in its direct vicinity, is remarkable and provides compelling evidence that community transmission began. on the market, “he wrote.
“Big red arrow”
“It tells us that there is a big red arrow pointing to the Huanan market as the most likely place where the pandemic started,” Worobey told CNN. “The virus did not come from somewhere else in Wuhan and then it reached the Huanan market. The evidence speaks quite strongly that the virus started in the market and then leaked to the surrounding neighborhoods.”
The World Health Organization (WHO) conducted its own research on the origins of the pandemic, saying that animals were the most likely source of it. But the WHO also said its conclusions were not final and asked the Chinese government to provide more information and access.
This information may never come to light, Worobey said. The Chinese government cleaned the Huanan market of all animals and disinfected it when it became clear that it was related to an outbreak of the infectious disease, in January 2020, eliminating the risk of further spread, but this also destroyed crucial evidence.
“I wouldn’t call this conclusive evidence, but rather strong evidence,” Worobey said.
The journal Science subjected Worobey’s research to external scrutiny before publishing it. And Peter Daszak, president of the EcoHealth Alliance and one of the WHO researchers, said he thinks it holds up.
“I was very impressed by the investigative work you have done. Everything you say about the December 8 case fits with what we experienced in Wuhan during the WHO trip: there was a cluster of early cases that reached hospitals late. December and the doctors went back to the presumed start date, “Daszak told CNN by email.
“They were wrong about this person because he probably visited the hospital for another reason. This places the first known case as a Huanan market worker, not the accountant who lived near one of the Wuhan laboratory campuses,” Daszak added. “This is now in addition to about 10 more scientific evidence that I have seen since the end of our work at WHO, all of which point to an origin via wild animal farms and markets. No evidence is totally conclusive, but when all are exposed, the balance leans towards the ‘natural’ origin. “
Worobey joined a group of scientists who signed a letter in Science in May saying that the theory that the coronavirus leaked from a laboratory needs extensive investigation.
“I signed that letter in Science suggesting that the lab leak needs to be investigated, which I still believe,” Worobey told CNN. “But in the meantime, there is a lot of evidence against and in favor of natural origin.”
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