Aukus Pact Faces Uncertainty as Trump’s “America First” Agenda Returns

The future of Australia’s defense strategy is uncertain after the US’s re-evaluation of a pivotal submarine deal. This review, driven by former President Donald Trump’s agenda, has sparked unease in Canberra and raised questions about America’s commitment to its allies.

Deal Under Review

A trilateral agreement between the US, UK, and Australia to provide the latter with advanced nuclear submarine technology is currently under review. The White House stated the need to ensure the Aukus pact aligns with Trump’s “America First” policies. This shift has worried Canberra, which fears losing its primary ally amidst growing global conflict.

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“I don’t think any Australian should feel that our ally is fully committed to our security at this moment,”

—Sam Roggeveen, Lowy Institute

Recent data suggests that allied defense spending has become a contentious issue, with the US urging its partners to increase their contributions (Source 2024).

Significance for Australia

The Aukus agreement, valued at $239 billion, is a major upgrade to Australia’s military capabilities. The new submarine model would allow the country to strike long-range enemies for the first time. Sharing this technology with Australia is a major step for the US and the UK.

Officials in Australia express confidence in the pact’s continuation, emphasizing the need for a new administration to re-evaluate its predecessor’s decisions. However, this review is still causing anxiety in Canberra, as stated by Euan Graham from the Australian Strategic Policy Institute.

Concerns are growing about the reliability of the US. Donald Trump’s statements and trade policies have also contributed to this unease, raising doubts about America’s dedication to its allies. Anthony Albanese is likely waiting for his chance to address these issues at the G7 summit in Canada.

Potential Outcomes

If the US reconsiders its position, Australia may need to find alternatives. Malcolm Turnbull has suggested that Australia should be prepared to seek alternatives. However, Paul Keating has presented the deal as something hurriedly put together by key players.

If the US withdraws from the alliance, the UK could still support Australia, though this is a challenge. Australia might need to depend on its geographic advantages for its defense. Roggeveen notes that China’s military buildup has grown significantly, yet the US’s stance in Asia has stayed relatively constant.

If the Aukus deal fails, Australia will have to rely on itself for its defense. Yet, some believe that Beijing is closer to Berlin than it is to Sydney. The key is the mindset of Australia, as it is believed it can defend itself, even if it must do so alone.