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Coronavirus: What the statistics keep silent – health

People have got used to consulting the statistics every day. What’s next for Covid-19? How much are the numbers increasing in Germany, in the world? It is important to interpret the data with caution. Because the columns of numbers by no means offer an exact picture of the currently ill or infected. It is fairly certain that the number of current cases is underestimated in almost all countries. Among other things, this happens because too little testing is carried out and because people can also be infected without feeling much of it and consequently do not go to the doctor. Or because many days can pass before a sick person appears in the statistics of his country. With exponential growth where the numbers double every few days, delays of more than a week can lead to massive misjudgments.

In some countries, less than five percent of those affected should be statistically recorded

Epidemiologists from the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine estimate that some countries do not even record five percent of all symptomatic people, including Algeria and Indonesia. For South Korea they assume that 77 percent of the sick are registered, for Germany they estimate a value of 66 percent. This is also only an approximation with many question marks. In addition, the calculations only refer to the sick, but not to those without symptoms. The German Society for Virology assumes that the number of those actually infected exceeds the number of laboratory-confirmed diagnoses in this country many times over. Against this background, it is particularly absurd that some people have recently started to think that the number of sick people is overestimated. For a few days now, the misrepresentation that the increasing number of cases was simply due to a change in the definition according to which the cases are counted has been spreading. This is not even correct in the beginning.

In Germany, only those who test positive for Sars-CoV-2 are included in the official count. It is irrelevant whether this person has symptoms or you know where he got infected. This is how it is defined in the case definition issued by the Robert Koch Institute (RKI). Since at least mid-February, this definition has included a subcategory, with the help of which the RKI also keeps track of how many potential cases without laboratory evidence could exist: people who show symptoms and have had contact with the sick. This is a common practice, it is also used for other infectious diseases. This subcategory has changed slightly in the past week. In this way, sick people who are in clinics or old people’s homes where there was an outbreak are also recorded. But for the official statistics, this category and its change are of no importance. The World Health Organization (WHO) only reports official laboratory cases.

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There is also great uncertainty in the registration of those who died from Covid-19. In Germany, they include anyone who was diagnosed with Covid at the time of death – regardless of other illnesses. It is often difficult to distinguish whether a basic illness or the current infection has caused death.

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