A model projects that about 300,000 people could die from covid-19 in the US by December
The researchers behind an influential model at the University of Washington are now projecting that the death toll in U.S It could reach almost 300,000 by December 1, but that can be changed if the constant use of masks occurs.
“The death toll from the United States’ covid-19 is expected to reach nearly 300,000 by December 1; however, continued use of masks as of today could save some 70,000 lives, according to new data from the Institute for Health Measurement and Assessment (IHME) at the University of Washington School of Medicine, “a statement said.
According to Johns Hopkins University, 159,433 people have died in the United States since the pandemic began. «The United States forecast totals 295,011 deaths for December, ”said the IHME statement.
The model does not have to come true, said IHME director Dr. Christopher Murray: “Public behavior had a direct correlation with virus transmission and, in turn, the number of deaths.”
“As of today, if 95% of people in the US wore masks when leaving their homes, that total number would drop to 228,271 deaths, a 49% drop. And more than 66,000 lives would be saved, “the statement said.
In its previous forecast, published on July 7, IHME projected there would be 230,822 deaths in the United States from covid-19 in November.
“Since July 15, several states have added mask mandates. Statistical analysis by IHME suggests that mandates without sanctions increase the use of the mask by 8 percentage points. But sanctioned mandates increase the use of masks by 15 percentage points, ”the statement said.
This new model assumes that 50% of school districts will have an online school in the fall. When schools make their final decisions, this will affect the forecast and IHME will “incorporate them into our future forecast reviews.”
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