The number of infections with coronavirus Covid-19 in the world exceeded 80 thousand people, of which about 2800 ended in the death of patients. In France, as in many countries around the world, hundreds of scientists are working on the development of a vaccine and a cure for coronavirus. But it is not yet possible to predict how this race against time will end. What do we know and don’t know about coronavirus? Can we talk about the Covid-19 pandemic? And when will scientists find a cure for this new disease? Frederic Tanguy, a former employee of the CNRS National Center for Scientific Research, answered RFI questions, and is now an employee of the Pasteur Institute’s Coronavirus Vaccine Laboratory.
RFI: Why is the whole world so afraid of the coronavirus epidemic? Due to the large number of deaths?
Frederic Tanguy: According to the latest figures from China, the death rate is currently 3.3%.
Is it more than mortality from simple flu?
Of course. Almost a hundred times. According to various sources, mortality from coronavirus is from fifty to one hundred times higher than from the usual seasonal flu epidemic.
But is it less dangerous than the 2003 severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) epidemic?
Definitely difficult to answer. By the number of infections and the number of deaths, we have long passed the volume of the SARS epidemic. But in percentage terms, the SARS epidemic was more dangerous: the mortality rate at that time was about 9%, that is, three times more than now. But three percent is already a lot. If coronavirus was a common flu, then today the number of deaths would be only forty people, and not two thousand seven hundred. (According to WHO data, on February 27, more than 81 thousand people were infected with coronavirus in the world, more than 2760 patients died – RFI) That is, mortality from coronavirus today is 60 times higher than from ordinary flu.
Who is in the so-called risk category? Who suffers the most from coronavirus?
Everyone can become infected with a coronavirus. But as with any infectious disease, people with poor health have a greater risk of death. These are either babies or the elderly, people, as well as those suffering from diabetes, heart diseases – in general, those who already have some serious illness. And although today we do not have complete data, it is known that more elderly people die from the coronavirus. As far as I know, no deaths have been reported in children under 18 years of age.
The authorities of different countries are most concerned about the so-called “asymptomatic” carriers of the virus. These are those who do not show any external signs of the disease, but at the same time they can infect others with the coronavirus. Is it possible?
Oh sure. As with any infectious disease, you can be a carrier of the virus without getting sick, but pass it on to other people. This is exactly how the virus is transmitted more often.
And how can you protect yourself from this?
In such cases, nothing can be done.
In addition to the closure of cities and the prohibition of flights.
Yes, China was thus able to reduce the spread of the epidemic, but about 80 thousand infected – this is still a lot. But we cannot even imagine what would have happened if China had not closed entire cities.
What are the current treatments for coronavirus and how soon can a coronavirus vaccine be expected?
We will find a vaccine for coronavirus, but it will happen sooner or later – it’s hard to say. Many laboratories in different countries are now working on this. However, there are different technologies. I think that by April or May the first vaccines will be developed. But the quality of these vaccines will not necessarily be good, because fast technology does not allow this. The program we are working on (at the Pastor Institute – RFI) will allow the vaccine to be made no earlier than September. And of course, we hope that by this time the epidemic will end.
As for treatment, there are no specific medicines for coronavirus. Now only symptoms are treated – antipyretic, anti-inflammatory and oxygen for those who have difficulty breathing. There are first publications on the results of treatment with various antiviral agents (for example, those used in the treatment of ebola or hepatitis C), but so far these are only initial data. To say how they will act with widespread use is impossible.
How long does it take to prove that one of the treatments works?
It is as difficult as calling the timeline for making a vaccine. If you act quickly and learn little about the side effects, then everything can be very soon. But under normal conditions, such work takes years. This situation, unfortunately, is a custom. The virus is completely new, previously unfamiliar. It is impossible to demand from scientists tested drugs for a virus that was unknown two months ago. It takes a lot of time to develop a new medication. At the present stage, for two months (after the discovery of coronavirus – RFI), there is no ready-made medicine yet.
Are you, as a scientist, frightened by this epidemic? Are you more worried than, for example, during the SARS epidemic?
Yes, because the epidemic is developing faster than SARS. Then the focus of the epidemic was repaid quite quickly. Now, development is out of control. We are now on the verge of a pandemic. If the epidemic affects another continent, if the same number of diseases are found there as in Italy, then a pandemic will be officially announced. By definition, a pandemic affects more than two continents. Now the epidemic has affected Asia and Europe, and while there are not a large number of infections in America and Africa, this is not a pandemic. But if we talk about Eurasia, then we can already talk about a pandemic for half the world’s population.
How big is the risk of turning a coronavirus epidemic into a pandemic?
Very hard to say. For example, what happened the other day in Italy took everyone by surprise. This can happen both in Europe and in Canada, or elsewhere. It is very surprising that very few cases are recorded in Latin America and Africa. (As of February 27, the only case of coronavirus was reported in Latin America: this is a Brazilian who recently came from Italy. On the African continent, one case of the disease is registered in Egypt and one in Algeria – RFI) This may be related to climate, but seasonal flu epidemics also occur in these countries.
In other words, is this disease so unknown that nothing can be foreseen?
Absolutely. You made the right conclusion. The world began to think that the development of the epidemic was slowing down in China, when suddenly it appeared elsewhere. And in China it was only a short slowdown. The number of diseases there has now exceeded 80 thousand people. This suggests that the spread of the epidemic continues.
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