Since the covid-19 coronavirus began to spread in December of last year, one of the big questions that has kept experts and health authorities busy is how deadly this new disease is.
According to the latest figures published by the World Health Organization (WHO), so far there have been more than 78,000 confirmed cases with around 2400 deaths.
The overall mortality rate, according to the most complete study on the outbreak conducted by the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention (CCDC), is a 2.3%, being people over 80 years those most at risk, with a mortality rate of 14.8%. But what do these numbers really mean and how can they be compared with other infectious diseases?
Covid-19 compared to SARS and MERS
CDC research ensures that around 80.9% of the new coronavirus infections are classified as mild, the 13.8% how serious and only the 4.7%as criticism, which includes respiratory and multiorgan failure, and septic shock.
Given these figures, the president of WHO, Tedros Adhanom, has noted that COVID-19 is not as deadly when compared to other coronaviruses previously registered, including the SARS and the MERS.
The risk of death in the case of SARS, for example, was much higher when the outbreak occurred in 2003, with about a 10% mortality rate (Of the more than 8,000 cases, there were 774 deaths). While with the MERS he was among the 20% and 40%, depending on the place.
Benjamin Cowling, professor of Epidemiology at the University of Hong Kong, tells BBC Mundo that covid-19 is “definitely less serious than the other coronaviruses.”
The academic also points out that the mortality rate is likely to be even lower than what has been said so far, as it is believed that there are many infected people who have not been considered.
“That means that really the rate may be less than 2% because the number of infections in our calculation is not as large as it could be, “he says.
“What epidemiologists are trying to find out today is how much that number could change in the future, how much it could increase, although predictions are very difficult because uncertainty is still very high, “he adds.
Cardiovascular or respiratory diseases, diabetes and hypertension are some conditions that put patients at risk.
However, it clarifies that, as there are a greater number of cases, all deaths due to this new disease will end up being much greater than in cases such as SARS.
“Each infection is less serious, but on average it will cause many more deaths than SARS because this coronavirus is much easier to spread,” he explains.
And what happens if we compare it to influenza?
As a general picture, it can be said that the number of deaths caused by covid-19 so far is very low compared to the mortality caused annually by the known respiratory disease called influenza.
An analysis of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) indicates that only in the United States 8% of its population (which represents about 26 million people) this disease is spread every year.
Of them, they die approximately 14,000. And although this number is still much higher than that of deaths due to covid-19 (just over 2,400 so far), the death rate is much lower: 0.05% Even more: global studies suggest that the rate in the world (and not only in the United States) of influenza death is only one 0.01%
According to the United States CDC, influenza vaccination reduces the risk of disease by 40% to 60%.
“If you compare the coronavirus with the flu, we can see that covid-19 is around 10 times more severe on average because the mortality in influenza is very low, only one person in each 10 thousand can die, “Cowling explains.
The academic adds that, because of this, many epidemiologists are worried. “It is a great challenge and justifies many of the public actions we have seen so far,” he says.
On the other hand, Cowling says that, in the case of influenza, it is “very unlikely” that a person will die. healthy and young person. While with the coronavirus, there have already been some of these cases (although they are the least: up to 39, the mortality rate is 0.2%).
“We have seen that health workers in Wuhan (China), such as Dr. Li Wenliang, only 33 years old, have died. If we think about influenza, that is very unlikely, we do not expect a healthy person of 33 years to die. Then we are worried, “he says.
Other more dangerous infections: rabies and Ebola
The scenario changes radically if the new coronavirus is compared with other serious infectious diseases such as rabies (which is transmitted to man normally by the bite of domestic animals) and Ebola.
The mortality rate of Ebola is much higher than that of the coronavirus. In the photo, the precautions taken in the Republic of the Congo to avoid contagion.
“Rabies has a mortality rate of approximately one 95% while Ebola, from a fifty%. These are very serious diseases, definitely more serious than the coronavirus, “says Cowling.
Even so, the academic adds that the spread of these diseases is not as effective as that of covid-19. “Viruses that are too successful in killing people do not spread easily. Therefore, we do not expect global pandemics of these serious infections to occur,” he says. (I)
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