Coronavirus, Gimbe: “Double infections and deaths, tracking strategies have failed”

Cases are also growing currently positive (142.739 vs 87.193), i hospitalized with symptoms (8,454 vs 5,076) and those in intensive care (870 vs 514). They increase by almost 25% i tampons, reached 202,871 altitude.

“Marked regional differences” – “With the dizzying increase in numbers, the national data does not account for marked regional differences, as well as provincial ones, which indicate the areas that require more restrictive measures”, explains Nino Cartabellotta, president of the Gimbe Foundation. The main indicators report documents a worsening in all regions on all fronts, except for the modest increase in the cases tested.

New cases – 33,778 new cases were registered, almost double compared to the previous week (Figure 1). At the national level, the percentage increase of total cases is 18.9%, with regional variations ranging from 7.8% in the Autonomous Province of Trento to 44.9% in Campania.

Cases tested – Also in terms of the capacity of testing & tracing regional performances are highly variable: compared to a national average of 1,045 cases tested per hundred thousand inhabitants, the number varies from 561 in the Autonomous Province of Trento to 1,832 in Lazio. “The most alarming figure – affirms the president of Gimbe – is the sharp rise in the positive / cases tested ratio from 7% to 10.9%, which certifies the failure of the system to stem the spread of infections”. The considerable regional variability documents that the “first dam” has definitely been lost in some Regions: for example, in Valle d’Aosta more than one case out of three is positive and in Liguria almost one in four.

“Follow the curve on the week, not on the day” – “In this phase of rapid rise in infections – continues Cartabellotta – rather than counting the numbers of the day, it is essential to follow the dynamics of the curves on a weekly basis. In fact, from October 6, the trend of currently positive cases, of hospitalized patients, rises. with symptoms and those in intensive care, followed a week later by that of deaths. ”In other words, even if the order of magnitude changes in terms of absolute numbers, the trend of all curves is now very similar.

Currently positive cases – The doubling of new cases in the last two weeks has significantly expanded the pool of currently positive cases which have reached the number of 142,739. As of 20 October, compared to a national average of 236 currently positive cases per 100,000 inhabitants, the range varies from 64 in Calabria to 577 in Valle D’Aosta.

Hospitalization and intensive care – Even in terms of hospitalizations, the trend has become exponential: in the week 14-20 October, patients hospitalized with symptoms increased by 66.5% (+3,378) and those in intensive care by 69.3% (+356), with a constant ratio of 10: 1.

Deaths – After a slow but steady increase, in the last week the deceased patients have more than doubled, going from 216 to 459, with a growth trend that is in line with that of hospitalized and intensive care patients.

Skipped the tracking system – The data confirm that the tracking systems have already failed in most of the national territory and now the primary objective is to prevent the overload of hospitals and intensive care units, in order to contain the increase in lethality.

“The alternation of dpcm on a weekly basis – observes Cartabellotta – and the parallel introduction of further measures in some Regions, from curfews to the closure of shopping centers on weekends, show, however, that politics has no real strategy to contain the second wave. If, as reported by Prime Minister Conte in Parliament, the goal is to protect both health and the economy, the Government, Regions and Local Bodies must take note that the virus is always running faster than their decisions. pursue it based on the numbers of the day that reflect the infections of 15 days before, but it is necessary to look at the projection of the curves at 2 weeks to immediately decide on targeted lockdowns, any local red zones and much more stringent restrictive measures “.

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