After the blackout in March and April due to the stoppage of activities, consumption slowly restarted. “The data we have so far indicate that household spending, four months after the ‘reopening’ has not yet resumed a well-defined path of increase and recovery”, explains Confesercenti.
Cuts especially on clothing and “recreational” expensesEven after the restart of activities, in fact, Italians continued to cut purchases: compared to the same period last year, in the six months from March to August, the average expenditure on non-food items fell by 1,170 euros per family. Especially expenses for clothing and footwear fell (-278 euros in six months, for a total of -7 billion euros), but there were also real collapses for spending on recreation, entertainment and culture (-195 euros , total -5 billion) and furniture and furnishings (-166 euro, total -4.2 billion). Consumption in public businesses is also sinking, with a drop of 207 euros per household, equal to a total loss of 5.5 billion.
The effects of the emergency on the availability of families also weigh on consumption. Uncertainty, is highlighted in the note from Confesercenti, increases the propensity to save for some; for others, the crisis has turned into a substantial decline in income from work, with reductions of -11.3% for employees in the private sector and -13.4% for the self-employed.
The difficulties for traditional shops A difficult context in particular for traditional shops, if we consider that the emergency, in addition to reducing the total expenditure of families, has transferred a portion of it to online. In six months, traditional distribution recorded an overall decrease in sales of 12.1%, which are practically halved for clothing and fur (-41.1%). Footwear shops (-37.8%) and bars and restaurants (-30.3%) were also very bad.
Confesercenti: “Still to be seen if the change in behavior will be lasting” It remains to be understood, according to Confesercenti, “whether the change in spending behavior will be lasting. Various factors can act in the direction of a permanent reduction in household spending or its redistribution: the stabilization of agile work at significantly high levels, uncertainty regarding the resumption of the pandemic or the worsening of their economic conditions, the expectation of future tax increases to face the crisis. We must avoid the downward spiral, giving new certainties to families and workers. A result – concludes the note – that we will only be able to achieve by supporting the restart of businesses: there is a need for a major plan of support and reconversion and digitization of activities, which will allow the entrepreneurial fabric to restructure to overcome the crisis and return to grow and create jobs “.
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