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Coronavirus, cases on the rise in 10 regions. “Impact on schools in 2-3 weeks”

For eight weeks, the coronavirus infection curve has continued to grow, as has the number of active outbreaks. The weekly monitoring report of the Ministry of Health and the Istituto Superiore di Sanità, referring to the period 14-20 September, still records an increase in cases. “We are ready for any eventuality in the sense that we need to be ready for measures should they be necessary at the level of small territories, at the sub-provincial level, while we exclude wider interventions at this time”, said the Minister of Health, Roberto Hope. Meanwhile, the hypothesis of a mandatory test is also emerging for those arriving from Great Britain.

The report of the dicastery and the ISS states that “the virus now circulates throughout the country. An increase is confirmed in the new cases reported in Italy for the eighth consecutive week with a cumulative incidence in the last 14 days of 31.4 per 100 thousand inhabitants while it was 29.4 per 100,000 inhabitants in the previous two weeks “.

And it is still not possible to assess the impact that the opening of schools will have on the progress of the epidemic. “This aspect – the experts write – will be assessable starting from the next 2-3 weeks”. In the week under review, a transmission of the virus in the school environment has not yet been ascertained although numerous sporadic cases have been identified in conjunction with the reopening of schools. A priority, the school, still reaffirmed today by the Minister Speranza opposed to the increase in stadium capacity to 25% approved by the State-Regions Conference. On a hypothesis of a little lower threshold, the head of Health replied: “This will be evaluated by our scientists. I am also a great football fan but at the moment Italy’s priority must be schools, they cannot be the stadiums, I say this with the utmost respect also because there are people who work around the stadiums, so nothing can be underestimated but at the moment we cannot afford to be light-hearted we have an advantage that we must keep. The virus circulates, we do not make mistakes ” .

Hospitals and health care services are holding up, for now, the new wave, but also the occupancy rate of beds in the medical area, which has gone from 4 to 5%, and the rate of intensive care, which has risen from 2% to 3% with values higher than 10% in some regions, are increasing.

Below 1, for the second week in a row, the mean Rt calculated on symptomatic cases is equal to 0.95. Even if 12 Regions register a virus circulation index above 1.

The median age of positives remains stable: 41 years. These data indicate how it is necessary to maintain “a line of maximum prudence. The great commitment of the entire population in the reopening phase – write the ministry and the ISS – and the maintenance of rigorous measures allows today to have a more limited impact on the health of the population and on the health system compared to other European countries. This must not lead to underestimating the risk that would be generated by the authorization of aggregation events and initiatives in public places, and of individual behaviors also linked to impromptu moments of aggregation “.

Ten Regions reported an increase in the number of diagnosed cases compared to the previous week, “which cannot be attributed solely to an increase in cases imported, from abroad or from another Region, or to an increase in screening activity” . Most of the cases reported (84.2%), the report notes, continue to be contracted on the national territory, with a slight decrease in cases imported from abroad (8% of new cases diagnosed this week against 10.8% the previous week) and also of cases imported from another Region (3.3% in the current week against 5.5% the previous week).

27.6% of new cases diagnosed throughout the country were identified through screening activities, while 35.8% in contact tracing activities. The remaining cases were identified as symptomatic (31.4%) or the reason for the diagnostic assessment is not reported (5.2%).

Therefore, this week too, the report continues, “there is a local transmission of the virus, spread throughout the national territory, which causes outbreaks of considerable size, especially in the home environment”. Overall there are 2868 active clusters of which 832 are new. Although we are facing high numbers, 28.7% of new cases are not associated with known transmission chains. Most outbreaks continue to occur in the home and family setting (76.1% of all active outbreaks), with a slight increase in recreational (6.3%) and work-related outbreaks (5.6 %).

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