How and how fast is the coronavirus spread and what is its medical impact? 94 Citoyens takes stock each week on the evolution and trends in the number of clusters, people detected positive for the coronavirus, Covid-19 patients hospitalized and in intensive care, and deaths by age and by department of Ile-de-France. of France. A barometer in fifteen graphics to visualize the progression of the epidemic.
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40% drop in the number of new cases in one week in Ile-de-France
After a vertical progression since mid-September, the number of new cases of Covid-19 had almost stabilized the week of October 26 and started to decrease the week of November 2, going from 54,784 positive tests to 42,930 The week of November 9, the number fell by 40% with 24,608 contaminations.
A total of 391,515 positive tests have been carried out in the region since deconfinement.
Warning : The data for the week of November 16 currently only concerns the first 4 days.
Monday’s peak continues to decline
Monday’s peak is also an encouraging indicator. From day to day in fact, we observe a peak on Monday, because there are fewer tests performed on weekends. These peaks demonstrated the vertical increase in the number of cases up to October 26, with 6,900 cases on October 5, 8,500 on October 12, 9,800 on October 19 and 13,180 on October 26. This peak began to decline on Monday, November 2, dropping to 11,700 cases, then to 7,083 cases on November 9 and 4,258 on November 16.
Note that in absolute value of course, the number of cases continues to increase, but this suggests a decrease in the number of patients within a few weeks, if the trend continues.
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The positivity rate drops
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At the national level, the 7-day rolling positivity rate (therefore slightly different from the day-to-day positivity rate) was 13.4% on November 20 against 16.9% on November 12, with large regional disparities. The Rhône Alpes region remains the most affected.
–Since October 21, Santé Publique France has been offering details of the positivity rate at the municipal level and not only at the departmental level. See the map below.
Drop in number of tests
The number of tests carried out each week in Ile-de-France has also decreased since the week of October 26. After reaching a high of 262,114 in the week of October 19, it dropped to 2014,930 in the week of November 2. then 146,102 the week of November 9.
Warning : in the graph below, the week of November 16 only takes into account the figures until November 19, i.e. the first 4 days.
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Regional incidence rate decreases
In the Ile-de-France region, the incidence rate of Covid-19 positive people per 100,000 inhabitants, over a sliding week of 7 days, fell from 451 (from 23 to 29 October), to 410 ( from October 30 to November 5) then 232.5 the week from November 6 to 12 and 133 the week from 14 to 20.
At the national level, it is 158 per 100,000 inhabitants, against 282 last week and 457 the week before. The highest rate is in the Auvergne Rhône-Alpes region even if it also decreases, going from 871 to 530 then 271.
Detail by municipality of Ile-de-France
Since October 21, Santé Publique France has been offering details of the incidence rate of positive Covid-19 per 100,000 inhabitants at the municipal level and no longer just at the departmental level. See the map below.
The decrease in the number of positive cases concerns all the departments of Ile-de-France
The decrease in the number of positive cases concerns all departments.
Warning: the week of November 16 includes only the first 4 days.
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Increase in the proportion of positive cases among those under 20 and over 70
In terms of age group, the two segments that increase, in proportion to cases, are the over 70s and the under 20s.
Those over 90 years of age go from 1.54 to 2.53% of those tested positive between the weeks of November 2 and November 9. The 80-89 age group goes from 3.14% to 4.27% and the over 70s from 5.03% to 5.73%.
Those under 20 are also increasing slightly. The 0-9 year olds thus go from 3.25% to 3.37% of positive cases, and the 10-19 year olds from 12.63% to 12.68%.
Below is the evolution of the proportion per week, since the start of deconfinement. (Data for the week of November 16 relates only to the first 4 days)
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Please note, the week of November 9 only includes the first 4 days.
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The number of people newly hospitalized begins to decline
The number of new hospitalizations begins to decline, from 3,046 the week of November 9 to 2,357 the week of November 16, a drop of 22.6%.
Recap of the last few weeks. After jumping the week of September 14 and decreasing the week of September 21, the number of people admitted to hospital due to Covid-19 has slightly resumed its progression since the week of September 28 in an increasingly sustained manner the week of October 5, reaching 1,957 people the week of October 12. The number jumped the week of October 19 to 2,860 new hospitalizations, up 46% over one week, and continued to grow in the week of October 26 with 3,490 new hospitalizations, a further increase of 22%. The increase is still strong the week of November 2 with 3,781, an increase of 8%. The week of November 9, however, the number began to decline, dropping to 3,046 new hospitalizations, down 19.4%. The number drops to 2,357 the week of November 16.
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The number of returns home remains slightly lower than the number of new hospitalizations
The number of hospital discharges is nevertheless still slightly lower than the number of new hospitalizations. The week of November 16, 2,175 people left the hospital in Ile-de-France, 2,357 entered.
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The total number of people hospitalized begins to decline
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The number of intensive care admissions decreases
The number of people entered into intensive care or intensive care due to Covid-19 in Ile-de-France decreased for the second week with 426 new admissions the week of November 16 against 558 the previous week.
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The total number of people in intensive care for Covid-19 is slowly continuing to decline
After reaching a peak of 1,138 on Wednesday, November 11, the number of patients in intensive care or intensive care for Covid-19 is decreasing for the first time in Ile-de-France. This Sunday, November 22, it stood at 952 against 1107 the previous week. This reduction makes it possible to remain below the symbolic bar of 1,200 intensive care beds planned in Ile-de-France, excluding the white plan. In order to increase the number of intensive care places from 1,200 to 1,775 at the regional level, the other hospital services have currently deprogrammed up to 50% of their activity.
Since September 23, the total number of people in intensive care in Ile-de-France had exceeded that of the start of confinement. It was 294 on March 18. As a reminder, the peak of the first wave was reached on April 8, with 2,668 patients in intensive care in Ile-de-France.
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Covid-19 in emergencies: the figures in Ile-de-France
10,460 people have died in Covid-19 hospital since March in Ile-de-France
The number of people who died from Covid-19 in hospital exceeded 10,000 in Ile-de-France the week of November 15. This Sunday, November 22, the number reached 10,460 people against 10,032 on Sunday, November 15, or 428 people in one week, against 539 people the previous week.
(In the diagram below, the large number of patients who died in Essonne the week of September 14 corresponds to a catch-up in the transmission of files from one of the hospitals in this department).
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The peak in the number of people who died from the coronavirus was reached in mid-April. On April 7 alone, 276 people had died from Covid-19 in the region. In this second wave, the peak was observed on November 9 with 113 deaths.
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Read also:
Coronavirus barometer in Ile-de-France: update as of November 16
Coronavirus barometer in Ile-de-France: update as of November 9
Coronavirus barometer in Ile-de-France: update as of November 2
Coronavirus barometer in Ile-de-France: update as of October 26
Coronavirus barometer as of October 19
Coronavirus barometer in Ile-de-France: update as of October 12
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