How and how fast is the coronavirus spread and what is its medical impact? 94 Citoyens takes stock each week on the evolution and trends in the number of clusters, people detected positive for the coronavirus, Covid-19 patients hospitalized and in intensive care, and deaths by age and by department of Ile-de-France. of France. A barometer in fifteen graphics to visualize the progression of the epidemic.
295,652 positive tests for SARS-CoV-2 in Ile-de-France between May 13 and October 29
In total, the number of positive Coid-19 tests in Ile-de-France amounted to 295,652, between May 13 and October 29.
54,000 new cases the week of October 19
The progression of new cases jumped again last week in Ile-de-France. From 8,000 to 24,000 per week during the month of September, the number has increased rapidly since the beginning of October. Within a week, the number of cases increased by more than a third, from less than 24,000 in the week of September 28 to more than 36,000 in the week of October 5 and 42,000 in the week of October 12. . The week of October 19, the number of new cases passed the 50,000 mark to 54,000.
Warning : the data for the week of October 26 are not yet complete, hence the impression of a decrease on the graph below, but 38,790 cases were already detected on the first 5 days of the week against 37,335 the First 5 days of the previous week, which again suggests a slight increase
Monday catch-up peaks
From day to day, we see a peak on Monday, because there are fewer tests done on weekends. These peaks also reflect the increase, with 6,900 cases on October 5, 8,500 on October 12 and 9,800 on October 19 and 13,180 on October 26.
The positivity rate flirts with 20%
Around 3.5% during deconfinement, the test positivity rate had fallen below 1% at the beginning of July before gradually rising. It crossed 5% in early September, 6-7% in mid-September, reached 10% in early October and then 13% in mid-October, despite an increasing number of tests performed. The week of October 19, it exceeded 16% and then approached 20%.
Since October 21, Santé Publique France has been offering details of the positivity rate at the municipal level and not only at the departmental level. See the map below.
262,114 tests the week of October 19 in Ile-de-France
If at the end of August at the beginning of September, the number of tests had decreased, it has increased sharply since. It went from 176,000 to almost 216,000 between the week of September 28 and that of October 5, up more than 20% from one week to the next, then to 255,000 the week of October 12, up 27.5%. It is established at 262,114 the week of October 19.
Warning : in the graph below, the week of October 26 is not complete and only takes into account the numbers from October 26 to 29.
Screening for Covid-19 in Ile-de-France instructions for use
A regional incidence rate of 451.6 positive Covid per 100,000 inhabitants
In the Ile-de-France region, the incidence rate of Covid-19 positive people per 100,000 inhabitants, over a sliding week of 7 days, is 451 (from October 23 to 29). It was 404 as of October 22 and 343 to October 15. At the national level, it is 438 against 340 against the previous week and 234 a week ago. The highest rate is in the Auvergne Rhône-Alpes region where it is 774, followed by Hauts-de France (573.5).
Detail by municipality of Ile-de-France
Since October 21, Santé Publique France has been offering details of the incidence rate of positive Covid-19 per 100,000 inhabitants at the municipal level and no longer just at the departmental level. See the map below.
Progress by department
Warning, the week of October 26 only includes the first 5 days.
The over 40s account for almost half of new positives
In terms of age group, the positive cases detected still mainly concern young people, unlike the first wave. But the progression of other age groups continues and the over 40s now reach nearly half of positive cases. The 20-29 age group represented 21.15% the week of October 19 against 28.53% the week of September 14, steadily decreasing since the end of August, when it had climbed to 37%. The proportion of 50-59 year olds, from 13.06% the week of October 5, drops to 14.37% the week of October 19. The 70-79 year-olds reach 4%, whereas they represented less than 3% in mid-September. In general, all age groups over 40 continue to progress in the distribution of age groups of those tested positive.
Below is the evolution of the proportion per week, since the start of deconfinement. (Data for the week of October 26 is for the first 5 days only)
Please note, the week of October 26 only includes the first 5 days.
No statistics on clusters
The last epidemiological bulletin, dated October 29, no longer figures the number of clusters in Ile-de-France. As of October 21, 2020, the results (excluding nursing homes and restricted family environments) amounted to 672 clusters included since May 8 in the Île-de-France region (versus 624 on October 7), i.e. 48 new clusters of one week in the other. Two weeks ago, Santé Publique France noted that, “In addition to a probable underestimation of the number of clusters, only 3.6% of cases (SI-DEP, period from 05/13/2020 to 10/11/2020) are attached to a cluster” and deduced that this indicator “Seems increasingly irrelevant to monitoring current modes of SARSCoV-2 transmission.”
Download the latest Public Health France bulletin on cluster surveillance in Ile-de-France.
But data on Covid-19 cases in medico-social establishments
The latest ARS-SPF epidemiological bulletin, on the other hand, reports 920 confirmed cases of Covid-19 among residents of medico-social establishments and 523 bet staff, the week of October 19. 19 nursing home residents also died from Covid that same week.
3,490 people newly hospitalized for Covid-19 in Ile-de-France the week of October 26
After jumping the week of September 14 and decreasing the week of September 21, the number of people admitted to hospital due to Covid-19 has slightly resumed its progression since the week of September 28 in an increasingly sustained manner the week of October 5, reaching 1,957 people the week of October 12. The number jumped the week of October 19 to 2,860 new hospitalizations, up 46% over one week, and continued to grow in the week of October 26 with 3,490 new hospitalizations, a further increase of 22%.
The progression remains at this stage less rapid than during the first wave
The week of October 19, the number of people newly hospitalized for Covid-19 had exceeded for the first time that at the start of the first wave, in the order of 2,860 against 2,300 the week of March 16. The progression remains smoother, however. The week of October 26, 3,490 people were hospitalized compared to 6,939 the week of March 23.
The number of returns home lower than the number of new hospitalizations
The number of hospital discharges continues to increase but since September 21, the number of home returns (in green below) is lower than the number of new hospitalizations (in blue below).
Below is the curve of people discharged from hospital, cumulative since mid-March.
The total number of people hospitalized continues to increase
As a result, the total number of people hospitalized in Ile-de-France resumed its progression and exceeds 5,000.
593 new ICU admissions the week of October 26
The number of people entered into intensive care or intensive care due to Covid-19 in Ile-de-France continues to increase with 593 new admissions the week of October 26 against 598 the week of October 19 and 381 the week of October 12 .
The total number of people in intensive care for Covid-19 represents almost two-thirds of the number of places available in normal times
As of November 1, the number of people in intensive care due to Covid-19 in Ile-de-France was 920, representing more than three-quarters of the total number of intensive care places in Ile-de-France ( 1200), against 751 last week and 580) the week before. In order to increase the number of intensive care places from 1,200 to 1,775 at the regional level, the other hospital services have deprogrammed up to 50% of their activity. By counting on 1,775 places for sheaves or intensive care, the number of places available is already half occupied at this stage by Covid patients. It is in this context that a new confinement was decreed last week.
Since September 23, the total number of people in intensive care in Ile-de-France has exceeded that of the start of confinement. It was 294 on March 18. However, the number of patients newly in intensive care is still lower than that of the first wave – to this day. Compared to the first wave, the increase in the number of day-to-day sheave patients remains lower. As a reminder, the peak of the first wave was reached on April 8, with 2,668 patients in intensive care in Ile-de-France.
Ile-de-France: reconfinement instructions for use
Coronavirus in Val-de-Marne: progress report with Eric Véchard (ARS 94)
Val-de-Marne: how emergencies face the 2nd wave of Covid-19
Covid-19 in emergencies: the figures in Ile-de-France
9,045 people have died from Covid-19 since March in Ile-de-France
The number of people who died from Covid-19 in hospital reached 9,045 on Sunday, November 1. It was 8,708 on Sunday, October 25, an additional 337 people in one week compared to 267 people the week before. From week to week, the increase in the number of dead people increases sharply, with some days more than 50 dead in 24 hours. The figures now correspond to those at the start of confinement.
(In the diagram below, the large number of patients who died in Essonne the week of September 14 corresponds to a catch-up in the transmission of files from one of the hospitals in this department).
The peak in the number of people who died from the coronavirus was reached in mid-April. On April 7 alone, 276 people had died from Covid-19 in the region.