Coronavirus barometer in Ile-de-France: update as of December 7

How and how fast is the coronavirus spread and what is its medical impact? 94 Citoyens takes stock each week on the evolution and trends in the number of clusters, people detected positive for the coronavirus, Covid-19 patients hospitalized and in intensive care, and deaths by age and by department of Ile-de-France. of France. A barometer in fifteen graphics to visualize the progression of the epidemic.

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10,209 new cases of Covid the week of November 23

10,209 new cases of Covid were detected in Ile-de-France the week of November 23, against 15,711 the previous week, i.e. a further reduction of 35% in new contaminations. Since the peak at the end of October, when nearly 55,000 new cases were detected in a week in Ile-de-France, the number has dropped rapidly. The number of new cases is now equivalent to that observed in mid-August. On the first 4 days of the week of November 30, the number is 6,035.
Update December 9 with positive case data from December 3 and 4: On the first 6 days of the week of November 30, we observe a plateau in the drop in the number of positive cases because there is an increase on December 4, which does not however correspond to the peak of Monday.

Recap. After a vertical progression since mid-September, the number of new cases of Covid-19 had almost stabilized the week of October 26 and started to decrease the week of November 2, going from 54,784 positive tests to 42,930 The week of November 9, the number fell by 40% with 24,608 contaminations. A new drop of 36% the week of November 16 with 15,711 positive tests and 35% the week of November 23 with 10,209 cases.

A total of 411,139 positive tests have been carried out in the region since deconfinement.

Warning : data for the week of november 30 currently only concerns the first 6 days.

Monday’s peak still falling

Monday’s peak is also an encouraging indicator. From day to day in fact, we observe a peak on Monday, because there are fewer tests carried out on weekends. These peaks demonstrated the vertical increase in the number of cases up to October 26, with 6,900 cases on October 5, 8,500 on October 12, 9,800 on October 19 and 13,180 on October 26. This peak began to decline on Monday, November 2, dropping to 11,700 cases, then to 7,083 cases on November 9, 4,258 on November 16, 2,589 on November 23, and 1,947 cases on Monday, November 30.

Update December 9 with positive case data from December 3 and 4: we observed a peak on December 4, which augurs well for a rise in positive cases.

Note that in absolute value of course, the number of cases continues to increase.

The positivity rate continues to decline

Nationally, the 7-day rolling positivity rate (therefore slightly different from the day-to-day positivity rate) was 10.8% as of December 3, compared to 11.1% as of November 26 and 13.4% the previous week, with regional disparities that remain. The Rhône Alpes region remains the most affected.

Since October 21, Santé Publique France has been offering details of the positivity rate at the municipal level and not only at the departmental level. See the map below.

Drop in number of tests

The number of tests carried out each week in Ile-de-France has also decreased since the week of October 26. After peaking at 262,114 the week of October 19, it dropped to 2014,930 the week of November 2, 146,102 the week of November 9, 122,659 the week of November 16, and 101,206 the week of November 23.

Warning : in the graph below, the week of November 30 only takes into account the first 4 days.

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Regional incidence rate decreases

In the Ile-de-France region, the incidence rate of Covid-19 positive people per 100,000 inhabitants, over a sliding week of 7 days, which had reached 451 the week of October 23 to 29, has gradually increased. fell and now stands at 69.4 the week of November 27 to December 3, compared to 90.6 the week of November 10 to 26.

Nationally, it is 87 per 100,000 inhabitants, compared to 104 last week and 158 two weeks ago. The highest rate remains in the Bourgogne France Comté (149) and Auvergne Rhône-Alpes (137.6) regions. The lowest rate is in Brittany (38.2).

Detail by municipality of Ile-de-France

Since October 21, Santé Publique France has been offering details of the incidence rate of positive Covid-19 per 100,000 inhabitants at the municipal level and no longer only at the departmental level. See the map below.

The decrease in the number of positive cases continues in all the departments of Ile-de-France

The decrease in the number of positive cases concerns all departments.

Warning: the week of November 30 includes only the first 4 days.

Increase in the proportion of positive cases among those under 20 and over 70

In terms of age group, the under 20 segment, which has been increasing proportionally in recent weeks, slightly decreases in the week of November 23. That of those over 40 is also increasing.
Those over 90 years of age go from 3.06 to 3.67% of those tested positive between the weeks of November 16 and November 23. The 80-89 age group goes from 5.03% to 5.90%. On the other hand, the 70-79 age group goes from 6.43% to 6.26%.

Below is the evolution of the proportion per week, since the start of deconfinement. There is a proportion of the affected ages which mainly concerned the oldest in the spring and then the young during the summer, followed by a gradual rebalancing.

(Data for the week of November 30 is only for the first 4 days)

Please note, the week of November 30 only includes the first 4 days.

The number of people newly hospitalized drops

The number of new hospitalizations fell for the fourth week, from 3,046 in the week of November 9 to 1,340 that of November 30. This number is equivalent to that of the end of September. The peak was reached the week of November 2 (3,781 hospitalizations)

Recap of the last few weeks. After jumping the week of September 14 and decreasing the week of September 21, the number of people admitted to hospital due to Covid-19 has slightly resumed its progression since the week of September 28 in an increasingly sustained manner the week of October 5, reaching 1,957 people the week of October 12. The number jumped the week of October 19 to 2,860 new hospitalizations, up 46% over one week, and continued to grow in the week of October 26 with 3,490 new hospitalizations, a further increase of 22%. The increase was still strong the week of November 2 with 3,781, an increase of 8%. The week of November 9, however, the number began to decline, dropping to 3,046 new hospitalizations, down 19.4%. The number decreases to 2,357 the week of November 16, 1,620 the week of November 23, and 1,340 the week of November 30.

The number of returns home exceeds the number of new hospitalizations

Above all, the number of patients returning to their homes exceeds that of new hospitalizations for the second consecutive week. While 1340 have been hospitalized for Covid-19, 1474 patients have returned home.

The total number of people hospitalized is approaching 5,000

After reaching 6,663 on November 15, the number of patients hospitalized for Covid-19 in Ile-de-France fell below 6,000 last week and fell to 5,274 as of December 6.

The number of intensive care admissions drops

The number of people who entered intensive care or intensive care due to Covid-19 in Ile-de-France decreased for the fourth week with 226 new admissions the week of November 30 compared to 261 the previous week. The peak was reached the week of November 2 with 637 admissions.

The total number of people in intensive care for Covid-19 decreases significantly

The total number of patients in intensive care is also decreasing. As of December 6, 668 Covid-19 patients were in shifts or intensive care in Ile-de-France compared to 804 patients the previous Sunday. The peak of the second wave was reached on Wednesday, November 11, with 1,138 patients.

In order to anticipate this second wave and increase the total number of intensive care places from 1,200 to 1,775 at the regional level, the other hospital services had deprogrammed up to 50% of their activity.

Since September 23, the total number of people in intensive care in Ile-de-France had exceeded that of the start of confinement which was 294 on March 18. As a reminder, the peak of the first wave was reached on April 8 with 2,668 patients in intensive care in Ile-de-France.

Read also:
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Val-de-Marne: how emergencies face the 2nd wave of Covid-19
Covid-19 in emergencies: the figures in Ile-de-France

11,132 people have died in Covid-19 hospital since March in Ile-de-France

The number of people who died from Covid-19 in hospital exceeded 10,000 in Ile-de-France the week of November 15. This Sunday, December 6, the number reached 11,132 people against 10,828 on Sunday, November 22, or 304 people in one week against 368 people the previous week.

(In the diagram below, the large number of patients who died in Essonne the week of September 14 corresponds to a catch-up in the transmission of files from one of the hospitals in this department).

The peak in the number of people who died from the coronavirus was reached in mid-April, during the first wave. On April 7 alone, 276 people had died from Covid-19 in the region. In this second wave, the peak was observed on November 9 with 113 deaths.

Read also:
Coronavirus barometer in Ile-de-France: update as of November 30
Coronavirus barometer in Ile-de-France: update as of November 16
Coronavirus barometer in Ile-de-France: update as of November 9
Coronavirus barometer in Ile-de-France: update as of November 2
Coronavirus barometer in Ile-de-France: update as of October 26
Coronavirus barometer as of October 19
Coronavirus barometer in Ile-de-France: update as of October 12

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