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Corona virus: When globalization becomes a deadly threat

Of Wu Dandan. Georg Fahrion. Kristina Gnirke. Veronika Hackenbroch. Martin Hesse. Martin U. Müller. Katharina Graça Peters. Michael Sauga and Bernhard Zand

On the evening of December 30, a young doctor from the Chinese city of Wuhan sent a short message to a group of colleagues: “Seven cases of SARS have been confirmed in the Huanan fish market.” SARS is a viral disease that broke out in November 2002 and claimed 774 lives. “It was clear to me,” said the doctor, “that we are dealing with a public health issue.”

The names of the doctor and the hospital where he works have not been published. But the story he told the Beijing Youth Daily has been shared tens of thousands on the Chinese Internet. Because at 1.30 am on December 31, the doctor is called in by the municipal health commission and questioned several times during the day.

Where did he get this message from? Was it clear to him that he had broken the law? Does he understand that if he spreads such news he will be punished? “Understood,” he writes on a form and confirms the answer with his fingerprint. But he will not be punished. He’s getting sick.

“I started coughing around noon on January 10th. The next day my fever rose. I knew I had a big problem.” On January 16, he got shortness of breath, and on the 24th he was transferred to the intensive care unit. From there he typed his story on a cell phone on his way to Beijing. He cannot speak, he is artificially ventilated.

The corona virus, of which the doctor warned at the end of December and which he eventually fell ill, has spread from half of the world from Wuhan. The World Health Organization for China reported 7736 infections, more than SARS, on Thursday, 82 cases have been confirmed in 18 other countries.

The plague worries scientists, politicians and entrepreneurs, it depresses stock market prices, it has started to change our everyday life, our business life and our travel habits. Fear travels the world. Sports events are postponed, fewer visitors from China are expected at the toy fair in Nuremberg than usual. British Airways and Lufthansa were the first airlines to cut all connections to China, Cathay Pacific no longer distributes pillows, blankets and magazines in the cabins to spread the virus to prevent. What’s next?

China, the most populous country and the second largest economy in the world, is facing a “complicated and serious” crisis, according to a leadership group led by Premier Li Keqiang. The country exports more than $ 2,300 billion in goods annually and contributes about a third to global economic growth.

What if, after the first airports were closed, Chinese seaports were also closed and thus an infinite number of small and large supply chains that spanned the globe were interrupted? What if the Chinese lose confidence in their government after the initial cover-up of the danger and the subsequent closure of major cities?

The epidemic already shows how vulnerable the intertwined economy of the 21st century is. Large parts of China have been idle for a week, the machines in the country with the largest manufacturing industry in the world have stopped. Officially, the government has only extended the New Year holidays by a few days, but kindergartens, schools, and universities are closed indefinitely. This suggests that factories in China will also remain closed for longer.

Experts disagree when the virus crisis will peak. China’s best-known epidemiologist Zhong Nanshan expects infections to peak in early February, while colleagues in Hong Kong and London tend to see April or May. Companies that manufacture products or partial products in China – electronics, mechanical engineering, auto parts, textiles – must be prepared for a breakdown lasting several weeks.

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