But it could get even fatter, as shown by a fiscal situation analysis that the finance minister submitted to his government colleagues last Wednesday. An extract of this is available from BLICK. There, Maurer estimates the total measures at CHF 95 billion.
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This sum also includes the CHF 40 billion for the Corona emergency loans, which in the best case scenario are all repaid and thus never get through to the federal budget.
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Extraordinary deficit of up to CHF 55 billion
Maurer expects an extraordinary deficit of up to CHF 55 billion this year. This includes 15 billion measures that have already been decided, as well as additional burdens of up to CHF 40 billion.
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However, much depends on the further development on the job market. The range is large – the additional burden on unemployment insurance is estimated at CHF 15 to 38 billion. “Unemployment will have a massive impact on a possible deficit at the end of the year,” said Maurer last week. However, it is still difficult to estimate how high the actual costs would be.
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It depends not only on how the economy develops – but also on how the hole in the unemployment fund is refinanced. One option is to increase contributions for employees and employers. But Maurer also brought into play the option of the federal government leaping into the breach.
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With regard to the impending deficit, Maurer said it could rise to 30, 40 or even more billions. At the moment, however, one could only say: “At the end of the year it will certainly look much, much worse than at the beginning of the year.”
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Annual adjustment needs in the billions
However, it is clear that the Corona crisis will continue to burden the federal budget for years to come. Because the measures must be financed and debts paid back.
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In his financial planning, Maurer also anticipates corona-related costs until 2030. For example, he expects less tax revenue, more expenditure on debt repayment or depreciation on guarantees. A total bill that has to be paid.
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The federal government has a “need for adjustment” of several billion annually. From 2022 to 2027, Maurer estimates double-digit billions – with the high point of CHF 16 billion in 2023. But even in 2030 Corona will be missing a billion francs.
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Parties outdo each other with ideas
Cloudy financial prospects for the federal government. That means: save packages or increase taxes!
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The parties are already outbidding each other with ideas on how to get the federal budget back on track. The SP demands a wealth tax, to cope with the corona costs. For example, the SVP wants to halve development funds, cut the cohesion billion for the EU’s eastern states and topple the planned bridging pension for older unemployed people.
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Citizens are also pushing for an end to the lockdown soon, so that the economy can pick up speed again.
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Corona virus
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The corona virus currently occupies the whole world and there are new developments every day. All current information and figures on the subject are available in the Coronavirus ticker.
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Measures against coronavirus
On March 16, the Federal Council re-classified the situation in Switzerland as an extraordinary situation according to the Epidemic Act. It allows the Federal Council to order uniform measures in all cantons. He previously informed the cantons about this step. As of March 17th at midnight, the following rules apply:
Public and private events are prohibited.
All shops, restaurants and bars will be open until at least April 26, 2020 closed.
The same applies to entertainment and leisure businesses such as museums, libraries, cinemas, concert and theater houses, sports centers, swimming pools and ski areas are closed. Companies are also closed in which the Keeping a distance cannot be maintained, such as hairdressing salons or beauty salons.
Grocery stores and health facilities are excluded.
The supply of the entire population with food, medication and everyday goods is ensured: there are sufficient stocks.
Grocery stores, take-aways, company canteens, delivery services for meals and pharmacies remain open, as do petrol stations, train stations, banks, post offices, hotels, public administration and social institutions.
Workshops for means of transport can also remain open.
Entry into Switzerland is drastically restricted and border controls are introduced.
The Federal Council has approved the deployment of up to 8,000 members of the army to support the cantons in hospitals, logistics and security. Civil protection is also deployed.
Federal Council continues to appeal to all citizens: “Keeping a distance can save lives!”
For the time being, the Federal Council is foregoing a general curfew. In order to curb the spread of the corona virus, he tightened the contact rules. Groups over five people face fines of CHF 100 per person.
Employers in the construction and industrial sectors are also obliged to comply with the federal recommendations on hygiene and keeping clear. Companies that do not comply with this should be closed.
The economy gets more money: With 32 billion francs, the Federal Council has decided on the largest stimulus package in Swiss history. A total of over 40 billion francs are available.
The approval period for short-time work is extended from 3 to 6 months. This minimizes the number of applications and thus speeds up the approval process. The deadline for pre-registration for short-time work will be completely abolished.
With the job registration obligation, all associated tasks and duties for employers and the public employment service are temporarily suspended. This simplifies the recruitment processes, for example for medical personnel, the pharmaceutical industry, agriculture or logistics.
In the case of unemployment insurance, there is no submission of proof of work efforts. However, the insured person must submit proof of their work efforts no later than one month after the COVID 19 Ordinance 2 expires.
To avoid provocation, all eligible persons receive a maximum of 120 additional daily allowances.
Employers may temporarily use the employer contribution reserves they have accumulated to pay employee contributions to occupational pensions. This measure is intended to make it easier for employers to bridge liquidity bottlenecks. The measure has no effect on the employees.
The Federal Council has also decided to introduce a licensing requirement for the export of medical protective equipment.
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However, one thing is clear: the billions will keep politics busy for a long time.