A Guide to the Daily Covid-19 Statistics.
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The classic three-stage corona missile is again on the rise in statistics: between 18 and 24 October, according to the Numbers Sciensano in Belgium infects an average of 13,858 people per day hit with the corona virus. That’s an increase of 40 percent over the previous 7-day period.
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Because of that advance – that because of it more selective testing is less well mapped – daily hospital admissions are also increasing, now 547 (+ 85%), and deaths, 59 (+ 26%).
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Since the end of September, the contamination figures in our country have risen from one record to another. Yet the situation is different from the spring. We dive into the numbers with you.
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Virus circulating strongly again
We are testing much more than in the spring. The limited testing capacity – in April the number of tests fluctuated between 5,000 and 10,000 per day – was mainly for those who showed clear symptoms. Today we test much more broadly, so it has recently become no longer tested everyone because the labs can no longer follow.
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The past week were an average of 67,000 tests per day decreased. Nevertheless, the registration of a lot more infections cannot only be traced back to the increased test capacity. The virus circulates much more strongly than in the summer. We can deduce this from the proportion of positive tests, the so-called positivity ratio.
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A high positivity ratio – the World Health Organization (WHO) set a threshold of 5 percent in May – suggests many undiscovered cases and a too rapid spread of the virus. A low ratio indicates sufficient testing and possibly slower spread.
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The percentage of positive tests in Belgium has recently increased rapidly. From 2 percent in early September to an average of 22 percent today. But there are major regional differences. In the province of Liège In the past week, 30 percent of the tests were positive, in West and East Flanders and Limburg less than 10 percent. And that while all provinces and the Brussels Region test roughly at a comparable level.
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Sciensano uses a flashing light system, whereby the light switches to orange if more than 20 new infections per 100,000 inhabitants have been reported in a municipality in the past seven days. If the number of new infections then increases for seven consecutive days, the light turns red. This is now the case almost everywhere, especially in Brussels and Wallonia:
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The virus has gained a foothold in Belgium, among others by returning skiers. Back then, people in their forties and fifties in particular tested positive. After that, the coronavirus mainly affected people over 60, who ended up in hospital en masse. From the summer onwards, the virus circulated in people younger than 40, but today the scale is leaning more towards the more vulnerable group of elderly.
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Pressure on care is increasing
End there again more people in the hospital due to the effects of Covid-19, the disease caused by the coronavirus. On average over the last seven days, this is now 547 (+ 85%).
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5,554 patients have been hospitalized, of whom 911 are being treated in intensive care. That is the highest level since April and the peak of the first wave. Yet here too the situation cannot simply be compared with the first wave. Now hospitals are taking in covid patients much faster than in March and April, when hospital beds filled at a very high rate.
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In the leisurely summer months, a federal spreading plan was devised to safeguard regular care as much as possible during new corona outbreaks. This means that hospitals keep a certain percentage of their hospital beds and their intensive care places free for covid. In phase 0, this concerns 15 percent of the beds in intensive care units and four times that in the nursing ward. In subsequent phases, each hospital reserves 25 percent (phase 1a), 50 percent (phase 2a) and 60 percent (phase 2b) of the beds in intensive wards.
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Intensive care under more pressure
Be today more than 900 people in intensive care treated. That is almost half of the maximum 2,000 beds that are provided for corona patients. They are spread across the provinces. The distribution provides an accurate picture of the pressure on hospitals. With the caveat that there are hospital networks that work together across the provincial borders, this creates a slight bias.
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The figures show major regional differences. The situation is particularly dire in the Brussels Region and the provinces of Liège and Hainaut.
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10,000 victims
During the past seven days, an average of 59 people died from the disease every day, which is the toll since the start of the pandemic to 11,038. Overall, we find that Covid-19 is more deadly to old people. More than half of the deceased are over 85s.
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Not all deaths end up in the corona statistics. In order to know the real impact of the deadly coronavirus in Belgium and to be able to compare it with that in other countries, excess mortality is a much more correct indicator. That is the number of extra deaths compared to the average of the previous years.
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During the first week of April, at the height of the first wave, more than twice as many people died than in previous years. Even now it is expected that more people than usual will die. Again: the greatest toll is on the over-85s, the age group of which more people have died than expected since spring. Conversely, in the youngest group up to the age of 24, almost consistently fewer people die than expected this year, partly because there are fewer road accidents.
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