Corona: Drosten advises on contacts diary – and warns of the second wave

Christian Drosten explains how a second corona wave can be prevented – and why one should keep a contact diary.

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Berlin.

• The virologist Christian Drosten became known to a wide audience in the corona pandemic
• His NDR podcast “Coronavirus Update” is currently in the summer break, Drosten has now published a guest post in the “Zeit”
• In it, the virologist explains what measures Germany could take to prevent a second wave of coronavirus
• Among other things, Drosten advises that everyone should keep a contacts diary in order to better understand chains of infection
• These are his other suggestions

With his podcast on NDR is the Virologe Christian Drosten for weeks now in the summer break. Now he is speaking up again in a guest post for “Zeit” – and explains which strategy he thinks could prevent a second wave and a new lockdown in autumn in Germany.

In his text, Drosten initially praised Germany for first wave coped well. The reason for this from his point of view: “Because we were able to test early and there was greater trust between society, politics and the infection sciences than elsewhere.” But now Germany is running the risk of losing this success again.

“The challenge is to know our room for maneuver for the exceptional time that passes until the vaccination is available,” writes Drosten. He warns: An “improperly defined infection control course” could undermine previous successes.

Christian Drosten: The second corona wave differs from the first

A possible second wave but differ significantly from the first. The virus had been introduced by skiers and other travelers in March, they had spread it in their age group, after which it had mainly spread to old people Care facilities spread further. “Then we managed to control the exponential spread of the virus.”

The first wave has “penetrated the population”, the second will “spread out of the population,” says Drosten. The virus has already spread more evenly – across all social classes and ages. After the holiday season, you will see that the contagion spreads geographically more evenly than before.

“While most of the infection chains have been comprehensible so far, new cases can soon occur everywhere at the same time, in all districts, in all age groups. Then the poorly equipped health authorities are finally overwhelmed to regulate the quarantine of each individual contact person. ”The second wave thus has“ a completely different dynamic ”. Because of this and because you have more knowledge about the virus, the concepts would have to be revised.

Drosten: “Clusters are driving the epidemic”

His recommendation is to focus on that Clusterbecause they drove the epidemic. Drosten refers to this Japan. “Instead of testing a lot and in a targeted manner, Japan decided early on to prevent transmission clusters.”

To this end, the country has created official lists of “typical social situations” in which such transmission clusters would arise. These lists were then publicly viewable. Apparently a success: “Japan managed to master the first wave without a lockdown despite a significant number of imported infections,” writes the Charité virologist.

Therefore he suggests that the Health offices also in Germany only react with “official measures” to a positive corona test if it comes from a “possible cluster member”. “Every citizen should keep a contact diary this winter,” writes Drosten.

This is what Christian Rustens plans:

• Concentration on clusters
• Keep a contact diary
• Courage to take the residual risk
• Mask requirement
• Restriction of private celebrations
• Separate classes in everyday school life
• Change in strategy: testing for infectivity instead of infection

“The remaining RKI recommendations are precise and correct, but the offices need an additional crisis mode. The offices should only respond to a positive test “if it comes from a possible cluster member”. Other positive test persons would then no longer have to be in quarantine for 14 days. “Isolation of the cluster members of five days is sufficient,” said Drosten.

“Experience from other countries already teaches us that it is impossible to completely interrupt individual transmissions,” writes Drosten. “So we have to allow health authorities to look beyond the residual risk in difficult times. You have to deploy the few staff where it matters: in the clusters. ”He emphasizes that everyone should think now – the population, politics and employers.

Christian Dorsten in the Corona Pandemic – More on the topic

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